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December 17, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly sunny. Any morning fog will mix out. Decent day temperature wise.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 55 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 50 to 54 TN ~ 52 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 43 to 48
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless we have some morning patchy fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 22 to 26
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:30 PM
Moonrise: 1:29 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:22 AM
December 18, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny with a few clouds from time to time. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some morning patchy fog with reduced visibility
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Some late night clouds. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 2:00 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 2:22 AM
December 19, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Increasing clouds through the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None AM hours. None to isolated PM hours. (MO)
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most of the day will be dry. Isolate late PM shower over southeast Missouri.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Medium
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southw and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Most likely no
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel evening plans. I would monitor updates and radars. The exact timing of the rain moving into the region is still a bit of a question.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause issues for outdoor activities, especially as we move later into the night.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 3:26 AM
December 20, 2018
Thursday forecast: Rain likely. Becoming breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 12 to 24 mph and gusty. Winds will be variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet conditions will interfere with outdoor activities. Gusty winds will also be an issue.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Rain likely. Breezy. Turning colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 32 to 35 IL ~ 32 to 35 KY ~ 34 to 36 TN ~ 34 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 18 to 28
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and gusty wind conditions.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Damp conditions combined with strong winds will make it feel uncomfortable outside. I am monitoring the snow chances, as well. It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 3:15 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 4:32 AM
December 21, 2018
Friday forecast: Rain ending. Low chance that the rain may end as a wintry mix or snow. It is likely the cold air holds off just long enough for this to end as plain rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending west to east during the AM hours
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? The precipitation may end before the cold air arrives. Monitor updates.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Low-end chance that the rain changes to non-sticking wintry mix.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Damp. Cold wind chill values. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B before 10 AM and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Cold wind chill values combined with damp conditions will make it unpleasant.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 25 to 30 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 25 to 30 TN ~ 25 to 30
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 18 to 24
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Other than cold temperatures, no.
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 5:42 AM
December 22, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 45 to 50
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Wind becoming southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 26 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 32 TN ~ 30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 5 to 10 mph. Wind becoming northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 4:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:48 AM
December 23, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~43 to 46 KY ~ 43 to 46 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no impacts.
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 6:00 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:53 AM
Another system may bring additional rain to the region on Monday and Tuesday. There remain questions about how much moisture will be available for it to tap into.
For now, it appears that this would be a rain event. With that said, different guidance packages show different ideas. If you have travel plans Christmas Eve and Christmas Day then monitor updates.
December 24, 2018
Christmas Eve
Monday forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Eve
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 7:08 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:52 AM
December 25, 2018
Christmas
Tuesday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Night
Forecast: Increasing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
Sunset: 4:43 PM
Moonrise: 8:19 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:44 AM
December 26, 2018
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Clouds increasing during the PM hours. A slight chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated PM hours
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Low confidence on the lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Perhaps
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause damp conditions. The timing of the rain is still in question. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:43 PM
Moonrise: 9:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:28 AM
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday, as well. Gusty winds.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
.
Monday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Thursday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated. Rain is in the forecast.
Thursday night: There is a small chance the rain ends as snow or a wintry mix. For now, it appears this is a rain event.
Friday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated. There is a small chance the rain ends as snow or a wintry mix. For now, it appears this is a rain event.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
Click to enlarge.
The next rain event will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday night. Rain totals should not be as heavy as this recent event.
You can expect a widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ rain event. This number has been in flux.
Click to enlarge graphics on the blog.
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Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Tuesday: No severe weather.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Decent weather today into Wednesday morning
- Rain chances ramp up Wednesday evening into Friday morning
- Dry Saturday and likely dry Sunday
- A fast-moving weather system arrives Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
- Active long-range forecast (but will there be cold air for snow)
We are going to start something new this week. I am going to have live blog updates during weather events. That means this blog will be updated frequently when precipitation is forecast and/or occurring. The updates will be posted at the top of each page. There will be a time stamp so that you know the update is fresh.
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. A bit damp on Saturday. Sunday was nice. Temperatures were above normal, as well.
Check out the month to date rain totals. It is already wet for most of the region. Above normal precipitation is likely for the Month of December.
This map shows what has already fallen.
8 AM temperatures
There was some dense fog over northwest Tennessee this morning (that spilled over into neighboring areas, as well)
Temperatures won’t move too much today. A few degrees.
Calm weather will be with us today into Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will be chilly but daytime highs will be decent for this time of the year.
Most of November was cold. December has started out mixed to mild.
Here are the month to date temperature anomalies. How many degrees above or below normal have temperatures been?
An active weather pattern will remain with us over the coming weeks. We have numerous storm systems to track. A stormy winter was predicted. It does seem that is the case, thus far (December has been busy, thus far).
We will have increasing rain chances late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most of the rain will hold off until later into Wednesday night and especially Thursday/Thursday night.
This does not look to be a heavy rain event. The last event did produce some moderate to heavy rain totals across the region. This one won’t be as wet.
Rain totals Wednesday night into Thursday night will likely range from 0.40″ to 0.80″ with pockets of locally higher totals.
I am not expecting any severe thunderstorms. No worries on that front.
Rain will come to an end by Friday morning. There is a brief window of opportunity when the rain could change to a wintry mix or snow. For now, that appears to be a low-end chance. Not overly worried. I will monitor trends.
Here is the NAM model guidance through 9 AM Thursday morning. You can see that some showers move into the region as early as Wednesday night.
Green represents rain. Blue is snow.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the model animation.
Here is the GFS model guidance future-cast radar. NAM is one model. GFS is another model.
This one goes out through Friday evening. Green is rain. Blue is snow.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the model animation.
Most of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should be dry. A weak system in the region Sunday and Sunday night could produce some clouds.
Our next weather maker arrives Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. It appears this will mainly be a rain event. Some of the models show a wintry mix or snow. For now, I am leaning towards this being a rain event. I would suggest you monitor updates in case temperatures are colder than forecast.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Green represents rain.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the model animation.
Yet another system may bring showers and perhaps thunderstorms by next Wednesday or Thursday. A fast-paced weather pattern with multiple precipitation chances.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Winter Outlook!
These products are for subscribers.
December temperature and precipitation outlook
January temperature outlook
February temperature outlook
Winter snow outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
