December 16, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Medium risk. A few locations could have some runoff issues as locally heavy rain occurs later this week. Widespread flash flooding is unlikely.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

December 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. Temperatures falling behind the cold front. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 58° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 15 to 25 mph becoming west at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers. A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 4:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A large temperature spread north to south.

Here is the temperature spread

What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 50° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Another large temperature spread.

Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers. Mainly during the morning hours. Falling temperatures from northwest to southeast through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:15 PM
Moonset: 6:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

December 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 25° / South IL 22° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° / West KY 22° to 25° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:02 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

December 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Light and variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 26° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 32° / West KY 26° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:55 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Warm temperatures.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramping up.
3. Locally heavy rain.
4. We are not anticipating severe thunderstorms this week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A cold front, that was responsible for widespread wind damage and tornadoes last night well to our north/northwest, is moving into our local area.

You can see all the severe weather from yesterday well to our northwest. Blue is wind damage. Red are tornadoes.

The front, as of 7 AM, was draped across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The front will sag southward today.

There is quite a bit of warm air ahead of the front and cooler behind the front.

Watch the temperatures over the coming 48 hours.

Double click on the animations to enlarge them.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Precipitation will fall both ahead and behind the front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are going to continue into Friday night.

The front will push south of the region tonight. That will bring a lull to the rain over much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain showers may continue over our southern counties.

The front will then lift back northward, as a warm front, tomorrow.

You can see that here on this image.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front tomorrow into early Saturday morning.

There could be some locally heavy rain. I have been forecasting a widespread one to two inch rain event. Locally heavier totals are likely where showers and thunderstorms train over the same area repeatedly. We call that training precipitation.

The great news is that severe thunderstorms are not likely with this event. We can be so thankful for that. Typically, when it is this warm in December we would have tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. That is just not the case this time around.

Let’s be thankful for the big and little things.

Precipitation will end west to east Saturday morning. I suspect the region will be dry by Saturday afternoon. The rain will end over our far eastern counties last.

Rain totals between now and Saturday will likely range from 1.00″ to 2.00″ with locally higher totals likely.

The WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some spots exceeding two inches. Here is their rainfall forecast map.

The WPC/NOAA has placed our area in a level one flood risk for Thursday and then Friday, as well.

A level one threat means that there could be a few spots with ponding of water on roadways, ditches flooding, creeks and streams will rise, and so on.

Friday’s flood outlook. A level one and two threat. One is the lowest on the scale.

Green is the level one risk. Yellow is the level two risk. The risk has increased a little bit for tomorrow. Again, primarily this is for ditch flooding, some field flooding, and some sharp rises on creeks and streams. Eventually, we will see some modest rises on the primary rivers.

I am forecasting Saturday afternoon through Tuesday to be dry and cooler.

There is a weak system Monday night/Tuesday that will push to our south. If there were any scattered showers with it, then they would most likely be near the Kentucky and Tennessee border southward. I will keep an eye on trends. For now, this does not look to be much of anything.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.