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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Tuesday night to Tuesday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. A light wintry mix is possible Tuesday night. Watch for icy patches on elevated surfaces.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy and chilly. Temperatures are in question Tuesday night. It may remain a bit warmer. A chance of rain becoming a wintry mix. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Light. Any accumulation would be light (less than 1/2″). Watch bridges and overpasses. Decks, as well. Southeast Missouri may remain mostly dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Less coverage over southeast Missouri. Greatest coverage over our eastern counties. Southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Cold. An AM snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor Tuesday night’s forecast for a wintry mix. Perhaps some icy patches.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Any evening clouds will depart. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° SE MO 18° to 22° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 22°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 6:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light southwest wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 7:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Most likely the scattered showers will hold off until Saturday.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely dry
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 AM
Moonset: 9:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a rain shower early in the night. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 30° South IL 28° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° West KY 28° to 30° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:15 AM
Moonset: 10:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: AM clouds. Clearing as the day wears on. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 46° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:44 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 22nd: At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated December 15th and 16th
A light wintry mix is possible Tuesday night. Watch for patchy slick spots on elevated surfaces.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Light wintry mix tonight.
- Cold week ahead.
Tonight and tomorrow morning.
A major winter storm is developing to our east. This system will bring widespread ice and snow to the Middle Atlantic and northeast. Some locations will pick up over a foot of wind driven snow!
Our region will only experience light precipitation.
A mixture of rain, snow, and freezing rain will develop tonight. Mostly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Smaller chances over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Little or no snow or ice accumulation is anticipated.
I can’t rule out some elevated surfaces having icy patches. A dusting of snow on the grass or rooftops. That would mostly be over southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky.
I would not get your hopes up for accumulating snow. This is not our snowstorm.
The system will linger into early Wednesday morning over our eastern counties. Clouds and perhaps some snow showers. Ending west to east.
There should be some clearing as the day wears on. First over southeast Missouri and then spreading eastward.
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Wednesday night through Friday:
Dry and cold weather will be the rule through Friday evening. Perhaps a few clouds from time to time. Chilly winter-like temperatures.
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Friday night through Sunday:
A fast moving system will bring additional shower chances Saturday and Saturday night. This currently appears to be a light precipitation event.
Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.20″ are anticipated.
Some of the models show no rain. Some show a bit more. For now, the above are my going thoughts.
Dry weather is expected Sunday and Sunday night.
No major snowstorms in the forecast cards.
This has been a bit of an odd weather pattern since summer. Fairly quiet, overall.
We usually have several major systems during October and November/early December. That didn’t happen.
It will be interested to see what winter delivers.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 16th through December 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 23rd through December 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 29th through January 11th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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