December 13th and 14th, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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Sunday night to Sunday night

1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. Light snow or a wintry mix is possible Tuesday night. Little or no accumulation. Watch elevated surfaces for patchy slick spots.

2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.

3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

December 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Decreasing clouds as the day wears on. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Watch for morning slick spots.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: New

December 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds as the day wears on. Thickening clouds. A chilly day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy and chilly. A chance of rain becoming a wintry mix. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Light. Any accumulation would be light. Watch bridges and overpasses. Decks, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Cold. A slight chance of AM snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will keep an eye on the the system pulling away from the region. Perhaps a few remaining snow showers early in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor Tuesday night’s forecast for a wintry mix. Perhaps some icy patches.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Any evening clouds will depart. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° SE MO 18° to 22° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 6:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 7:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 AM
Moonset: 9:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:15 AM
Moonset: 10:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:44 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through December 22nd: At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated December 13th and 14th

Rain and rain/snow will develop this afternoon and tonight. See graphics and discussion below.

Another rain/snow event is likely Tuesday night. Monitor updates on the track of that system.

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Weather Discussion

1. A wintry mix later today and tonight.
2. A wintry mix possible Tuesday night.
3. Cold week ahead of us.

Good day, everyone. I hope you are staying well through this pandemic. I know it has been hard on many families.

The weather has been semi-quiet for months. An odd pattern, to say the least. If you like quiet then this has been your weather pattern.

Thankfully, we have received some rain. Otherwise, drought would be the topic. We have been lucky on that subject.

An exceptional drought is underway across a large chunk of the Western United States.

Click image to enlarge it. This is a screenshot. That red and maroon region represents extreme and exceptional drought. They desperately need rain.

We have two weather events to track over the next few days.

The first one arrives Sunday afternoon and night. The second one arrives Tuesday evening and night.

Both of these events will bring a variety of precipitation to the region.

It is currently bringing snow to our southwest. Check out Tulsa, Oklahoma. Their first snow of the season.

Locally, it is not cold enough for an all snow and ice event. Ground temperatures are not all that cold. Air temperatures won’t be all that cold, either.

Thus, snow and ice accumulation will be light. I can’t completely rule out some light accumulation. Especially over southeast Missouri with smaller chances as you move eastward.

See the snow accumulation graphics below. If your county is not mentioned, then chances are below 10%. These graphics are for event one.

Our first event is already taking shape to our west/southwest. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings have been issued from Missouri and Arkansas back into Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Purple counties are winter weather advisories. Pink counties are winter storm warnings. Winter storm warnings mean heavier snow is expected.

Heavy snow is likely in northwest Arkansas.

You can see southern Missouri has been included in some of the snow advisories.

This graphic was updated around 9 AM Sunday.

As the system rolls into our region, we can expect an increase in both rain and some wintry mix. Mainly later this afternoon into tonight. Ending early Monday. Monday should be dry.

Radar screen-shot.

Green is rain. Yellow and red are moderate to heavy rain.

Blue is snow. Purple is moderate snow. Pink is heavy snow.

9 AM Sunday. Radar screen shot.

And the live radar view

Don’t forget our local city-view radars have precipitation typing. Click the winterize button above each one of those local radars (city-view only).

Radar and storm tracking links are at the bottom of the page. Or here -> Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

Example of the winterize button on the local city-view radars.

This is just a screen-shot example.

When you click that button the radar will switch to precipitation-type mode. That will show you what it believes is falling. Rain, snow, ice, other. It is a computer algorithm so it isn’t perfect. It is typically, very close.

If it were a tad colder we would be looking at one to five inches of snow.

As it stands, the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service does not have any advisories for my forecast counties.

I will keep an eye on Butler County and Bollinger Counties in southeast Missouri. It may be a tad colder there.

Areas just east of there, as well. If additional advisories were issued, then they would most likely be across southeast Missouri. Smaller chances as you move further and further east.

Elsewhere, a rain and rain/snow mix will occur with o” to 1″ of snow. If snow does accumulate, it would mostly be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Lows tonight/Monday morning will range from the upper 20s over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois to the lower 30s elsewhere.

Watch bridges and overpasses if temperatures fall below freezing. Porches and decks, as well.

The EC model has a product that shows you the percentage chance of one inch of snow.

Let’s look at what it is showing.

System one.

Click on the image to enlarge it.

System one and two (today through Wednesday morning).

Click on the image to enlarge it.

Here are your snow probability charts for the next 24 hours. Event one.

For the counties that are not included in the graphics, your chances are lower than 10%.

These are for the Sunday afternoon and night precipitation event.

The second system will arrive Tuesday night.

This is a vigorous system that will be strengthening as it moves towards the East Coast. As a matter of fact, heavy snow and ice will fall along its path well to our east.

The system will have enough cold air to bring us rain changing to rain/snow or all snow.

There is a chance of light snow accumulation over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps northwest Kentucky. As you travel further south, the chances of accumulating snow will diminish.

There remain some questions about this second system. Thus, monitor updates. A shift of 50 miles would change the snow / rain forecast.

Let me show you some of the model guidance snow forecasts.

Models handle snow totals poorly. This will, however, give you an idea of how the system will unfold as far as placement.

You can see that the heavier snow will avoid my forecast counties. That is the going forecast. As always, monitor updates.

I am showing you two maps for each model (except NAM 3K).

The first map is today’s event. The second map is today through Wednesday.

EC model

GFS model

NAM 3K model

NAM model

Wednesday through Friday will be dry.

I am watching the weekend for another system. At this time, confidence on that system is low. It appears to be a rain event.

Model guidance keeps showing some type of precipitation event around Christmas. Still a chance of a white Christmas. Don’t give up hope! I know some of you are hoping for snow.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.