Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Isolated lightning is possible on Saturday. Another chance Sunday night into Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Sunday night and Monday. A few of the storms could be intense. The overall severe weather risk appears minimal. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? POSSIBLE. I am watching colder air late next week.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? MONITOR. I am watching colder air late next week.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I am monitoring next Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .
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Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 5. Medium risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday: 2. Very low risk.
Saturday night: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A shift to a more southerly flow will raise temperatures for the weekend, though stable low-levels will continue to limit mixing through Saturday. Two periods of rain are expected, one Saturday into early Sunday, and the next on Monday. Combined rainfall totals for the two events are now projected to be in the 2 to 3 inch range. A few thunderstorms are also possible Monday. Temperatures will run above normal through Tuesday before cooling below normal for the middle to end of the week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
Thursday Long Range Outlook
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers developing over southeast Missouri late at night. Spreading east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:58 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain increasing from west to east. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:48 PM
Moonset: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance showers. Higher chances east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:47 PM
Moonset: 7:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Monday Forecast: A chance of showers. Thunderstorms are possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A slight chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:54 PM
Moonset: 8:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Light and variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Warming trend this weekend.
- Rain chances return Friday night into Saturday night.
- Another rain event early next week. Active pattern.
- Watching the middle of next week. Watching colder air late next week.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone.
It is chilly this morning. Coat weather.
The good news is that we will have a warming trend this weekend into early next week. Nothing extreme, but somewhat milder.
The milder air will deliver rain, as well. We warm up and it rains. We cool down and it is dry. Seems to be the story of our regions weather.
It will be dry today. There will be quite a few clouds today. That will make it feel a little cooler.
A couple of showers are possible late tonight over mainly southeast Missouri.
Rain will spread west to east on Saturday. Becoming widespread across the region. I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder, but severe thunderstorms won’t be a concern through Sunday afternoon.
Widespread rain will remain with us into Saturday night. See the future-cast radars below.
Sunday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers may remain in the region. Coverage won’t be a great as tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Rain coverage on Sunday will be a bit higher over eastern portions of western Kentucky. See the rain probability graphics at the top of the page.
Another system will pull into the region on Sunday night into Monday night. Widespread rain will return to the region. Moisture levels will be a bit higher Sunday night and Monday. Thus, locally heavy rain is possible. Some rumbles of thunder, as well.
Here are the PWAT values for the Sunday night and Tuesday event.
There are hints of a risk of strong thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday over mainly southeast Missouri. We are going to have to monitor it. Overall, the parameters appear marginal for severe thunderstorms, but perhaps not a zero risk. I will monitor trends into the weekend and update you on the app, if necessary.
Here is the GFS model’s CAPE graphic. Think of CAPE as energy that storms tap into. Some low-end CAPE showing up Sunday night/Monday morning.
Conditions should dry out by Tuesday.
RAINFALL TOTALS
Let’s look at rain totals tonight through Tuesday.
Double click the image to enlarge them.
Western view
Eastern view
That is a healthy amount of rain for December. Some of you need rain.
I have been monitoring a third system late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Models have not been in agreement on that event. They have shown everything from no precipitation to a wintry mix of snow and sleet. For now, I continue with low-end rain chances during that time period.
I will closely monitor trends as we move through the coming days and adjust the forecast as confidence in the final solution increases. Monitor updates.
Finally, there are signals for a sharp cold front late next week. Perhaps some bitterly cold air with it. Snow showers aren’t out of the question.
That is beyond the long range period. I will monitor it, as well.
You can see that cold shot on this animation from the GFS model. Double click the animation to enlarge it.
The red colors represent above average temperatures. The blue and pink colors represent below average temperatures.
The date is at the top of the animation.
Here are two more graphics.
These are temperature anomaly maps. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees. Normal lows are around 30 degrees.
Check out Monday’s temperature anomalies ahead of the cold front.
Mild air.
Monday morning’s temperature map.
Here is next Saturday’s temperature anomaly map. Well below average temperatures showing up in the charts. We will have to see just how cold. Perhaps lows in the teens and twenties. Highs in the thirties.
Temperature map for next Saturday night. Brrr.
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Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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Here is the NAM model.
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Let’s look farther out. The Monday and Wednesday systems.
GFS model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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EC model
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Regional Radar
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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