December 13, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday into Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No. Some light rain/snow mix is possible Thursday night over our northern counties.

December 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:39 PM
Moonset: 1:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild for December. A chance of isolated showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:03 PM
Moonset: 2:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a showers. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower (mainly late). A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe). Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:30 PM
Moonset: 3:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers. A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe). Rain may mix with snow over our northern counties. No accumulation expected.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 4:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 58° to 52° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:15 PM
Moonset: 6:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

December 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:02 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 15th: The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link CLICK HERE FOR THE LIVE BLOG

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Warming trend. Unseasonably mild weather.
2. Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances later this week.
3. We are not anticipating severe thunderstorms this week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

I don’t know what to say. My heart breaks for everyone. These have been some of the hardest days, for all of our communities, imaginable. I know many many of you lost property and some lost their lives.

We are doing what we can to help. Everyone is in our thoughts and prayers. I hope the coming days and weeks will bring healing.

I have some resources for children who are now scared of storms. Some information on how to talk to your kids (and adults) after the storm. You can email me for that at beaudodson@usawx.com

Weather Discussion

A mild week of weather ahead of us. Some extreme anomalies for this time of the year. Temperatures will be well above seasonal norms.

Let’s look at just how much above average. I am not sure I have ever seen maps that show temperatures 40 degrees above average in the central United States.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees (locally).

Tuesday

Wednesday (incredible numbers out of Iowa).

Thursday

Friday

Thankfully, we are not forecasting severe weather this week. Typically, when it is this warm in the Month of December, we would be forecasting severe thunderstorms. We are just going to be lucky this time around.

We will have increasing shower chances Tuesday into at least Friday (perhaps Saturday). There will be on and off chances with lulls in-between.

Peak rain chances will be Wednesday night, Thursday, and Friday/Friday night. Chances will be lower Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Thursday night.

There could be a rain/snow mix over our northern counties Thursday night. We are not expecting any accumulation. Monitor updates, as always.

As far as the weekend goes, the storm system responsible for our on and off rain chances will hover near the region (mostly to our south). We may have to include low-end shower chances Saturday and Sunday, but it does not look like widespread precipitation.

Rain totals will vary but could top one inch.

Here is the rainfall forecast from NOAA. This covers the entire week.

I am watching a storm system on the 24th and 25th. Too early to say how extensive precipitation will be. It does look too warm for snow and ice. Still several days to monitor that portion of the forecast.

The GFS model shows that system. Heavy snow/blizzard well to our north. Low pressure moving through Iowa. A cold front trailing into our region. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front.

Still time for adjustments on this one. It is in the long range.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.