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December 13, 2018
Thursday forecast: Rain likely. Widespread region-wide the first half of the day. Becoming more of a southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky event as we move deeper into the day. Some moderate downpours likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 north to 55 Bootheel IL ~48 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Rain showers could be an issue for any outdoor activities.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. Cool. Locally moderate rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain will likely impact outdoor activities.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 11:31 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:29 PM
December 14, 2018
Friday forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast becoming east and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Possible lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet and windy conditions could impact outdoor activities. Rain is the concern.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 8 to 16 mph becoming northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Some remaining rain showers could make for wet conditions. Gusty winds are a concern for outdoor activities, as well.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:01 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:26 PM
December 15, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Some showers likely. Rain should taper as we move through the day. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 4o to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early. Ending west to east through the day.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during at least the morning hours. Monitor the afternoon forecast.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause wet conditions for outdoor activities. There remain some questions about when the rain ends.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps some patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 34
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:30 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:01 PM
December 16, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Perhaps some patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated?
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:57 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 12:23 AM
December 17, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless we have some morning patchy fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 28 to 32 IL ~ 28 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 24 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated?
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:30 PM
Moonrise: 1:29 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:22 AM
December 18, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some morning patchy fog with reduced visibility
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 2:00 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 2:22 AM
December 19, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A shower possible. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 34 to 38
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 3:26 AM
December 20, 2018
Thursday forecast: Some morning clouds. Clearing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 55 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 3:15 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 4:32 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
.
Today: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Friday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Saturday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Sunday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Monday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Thursday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Winter Snow Outlook!
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December temperature and precipitation outlook
January temperature outlook
February temperature outlook
Winter snow outlook
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
Click to enlarge.
Most of this rain will fall Thursday into Friday. Rain may linger into Saturday.
The overall flood risk is low. Most areas will pick up 0.75″ to 1.40″. Locally totals may reach two inches. Some of the common water problem areas could have standing water or ditches full of water.
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Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Wednesday: No severe weather. A few lightning strikes possible Friday.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain is the main weather story.
- Dry next week?
- Not as cold as recent weeks.
We are waking up to widespread clouds and rain.
Rain developed to our south overnight and spread northward during the early morning hours.
Some of the rain has been moderate. It has mostly, however, been a steady light rain.
We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Here is the morning water vapor GOES 16 satellite. You are looking at moisture. Notice how the moisture comes out of the Pacific and crosses Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.
This system has a nice moisture fetch.
Rain will continue into Saturday. The system has slowed a bit.
8 AM dew points
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Higher dew points typically mean heavier rain totals. During the summer months we often times have dew points in the 65 to 75-degree range.
During the winter months, the dew point numbers are much lower. A few times we might pop above 60-degree dew points.
Here are this mornings dew point readings. Notice the increase as you move towards the Missouri Bootheel. That is an indication of increasing moisture.
8 AM temperatures
Widespread clouds and fog. Light to moderate rain, as well. A damp and chilly morning across the region.
I didn’t agree with the high-temperature map for today, so I left it off.
It will be colder Friday night into Saturday. It won’t be cold enough for snow.
Our rain has arrived.
The system has slowed some and we now expect rain to continue into at least a portion of Saturday. At one point, Saturday appeared as if it would be dry. Now, that may not be the case.
If you have outdoor plans today through Saturday then you will want to monitor radars. Rain may interfere with some outdoor activities.
The good news is that we do not have snow or ice in the forecast (well, good for those who don’t like snow).
It appears temperatures will be somewhat milder than the past six weeks. A well-earned break from the below normal temperatures.
It won’t be warm. Don’t get your hopes up for warm weather. It just won’t be as cold.
Here is the GFS animation of temperature anomalies. Red indicates above normal and blue represents below normal temperatures. Notice the possibility of a cool down as we move closer to Christmas. Long way off. Confidence in the long range is always going to be lower.
Click to enlarge. The day/date can be found at the top of the image.
Here are the latest WPC temperature outlooks into the week of Christmas.
You can see our long-range teams forecast further down in the blog update.
Let’s take a look at a couple of models.
This first model is the NAM 3K. This takes us into Saturday afternoon. Additional rain will fall Friday night and Saturday morning.
The time-stamp is in the upper left.
Click to enlarge the animation.
Green represents rain. Blue is snow. Pink/orange would be an icy mix. This is a rain event locally. The bulk of it falls Thursday afternoon into Friday.
Yellow represents heavier rain showers.
Here is the GFS model guidance (it goes out further in time).
Click to enlarge
The time-stamp is in the upper left.
For now, it appears we will remain dry Sunday through Wednesday afternoon.
I am watching a disturbance around Wednesday evening/night. I can’t rule out a few showers. It does not, at least for now, appear to be a widespread rain event.
Temperatures next week will be near to above normal.
I am monitoring December 23rd through 26th for some precipitation. Way too early, of course, to know whether it would be rain or snow.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Winter Outlook!
These products are for subscribers.
December temperature and precipitation outlook
January temperature outlook
February temperature outlook
Winter snow outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
