We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook will be updated on Monday, December 12th
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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New long range winter weather outlook with be possible on Monday
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Breezy. Widespread rain. Moderate rain possible (especially over Kentucky) Cold.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Temperatures should remain above freezing while precipitation is falling.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-34 degree range over our northern and northwestern counties. Lows in the 32-36 degree range for far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Precipitation should end before temperatures fall below freezing.
Wind Chill: 28-34 degrees
Winds: Variable at 7-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 100% . TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread before midnight. Diminishing after midnight.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely (less than 5% risk)
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
December 12, 2016
Monday: Cloudy during the morning hours. Rain ending from northwest to southeast before 7 am. A mix of sun and clouds is possible as the day wears on. Clouds may linger. Lower confidence on cloud cover forecast. Cold temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways during the early morning hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 36-44 degrees
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? Rain ends late Sunday night into Monday morning from west to east MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Diminishing through late Sunday night into Monday morning
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely (less than 5% risk)
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold and damp.
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 3:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night: Some clouds. Colder. A 30% for a rain or freezing rain mix. Lot of dry air to overcome. Some light precipitation is possible late Monday night/Tuesday morning.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, however, monitor updates if freezing rain occurs. Some slick spots would occur if freezing rain does develop.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 26-34 degrees
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? A rain/freezing rain mix possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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December 13, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light rain or freezing rain possible. Colder. Below normal temperatures once again.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates in case light freezing rain develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: 34-36 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Patchy or scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Possibly some light precipitation. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:16 a.m. Full Moon
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and colder. Low wind chills on Wednesday morning.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills late Tuesday night/Wednesday.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 18-24 degree range.
Wind Chill: 14 to 18 degrees
Winds: North and northeast at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 14, 2016
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Cold. Well below normal temperatures. Perhaps a flurry.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills. Wind chills 12-20 degrees.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12 to 20 degrees
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Clear and cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills. Bundle up weather!
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 7-14 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph diminishing to 0-5 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-20 degrees
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Some increase of clouds possible. Cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-16 degrees
Winds: North early and becoming variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 16, 2016
Friday: Cloudy. I will be monitoring precipitation chances. Breezy. I will be monitoring a new storm system developing to our west.
What impact is expected? I will be monitoring precipitation chances. Lower than normal confidence. Monitor updates in case the storm track shifts.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds: East and southeast winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Cloudy. A chance for rain or snow. Monitor updates. Temperatures rising overnight.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: 26-32 degrees
Winds: Becoming south at 10-20mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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December 17, 2016
Saturday: Cloudy. A chance for rain. Warmer. Above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible. Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Rain likely. Rain may end as light snow. Turning colder with falling temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps precipitation will end as light snow/flurries.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain can’t be ruled out
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December 18, 2016
Sunday: Partly sunny and colder.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 26 to 32 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Clear and cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 15-20 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-15 degree range
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Some clouds to start the week
- Cold week ahead with below normal temperatures
- Flurries?
- Weekend storm system
- BIG Christmas give-away contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
Weather synopsis:
Key items to remember:
A. Well below normal temperatures will continue.
B. Monitoring a late week storm system. Thunderstorms? Rain? Snow? Oh my.
C. Cold waves to continue. December is starting out quite cold.
Sunday Night and Monday:
Rain showers were developing across the region (as of this writing). A few moderate downpours are possible over Kentucky and Tennessee. Generally, rainfall totals of 0.20″ to 0.40″ will be the rule for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Pockets of locally high totals possible over far southern Illinois.
Rainfall totals for Kentucky and Tennessee will likely range from 0.30″ to 0.60″. Locally higher totals possible.
Rain ends by Monday morning. Rain showers were supposed to linger into Monday. Now it appears that won’t’ be the case. Rain should end before sunrise.
Cold temperatures on Monday through Friday. Below normal temperatures. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees. Normal lows are around 28 degrees.
A front moves through the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some increase of clouds with the front. I can’t rule out flurries or snow showers. I will keep an eye on it. As always!
Thursday morning might be the coldest morning of the week. BRRR
Low temperature forecast for Thursday
Speaking of averages. Check out month to date for December. Remember, the December forecast was for below normal temperatures. Normal to above normal precipitation with frequent systems to track.
Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rain Sunday night ending on Monday morning. Will monitor another system Friday and Saturday
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
These are precipitation totals from now until Monday
Click images to enlarge
These are NWS forecast totals.
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Temperature Outlook
Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
Pockets of colder temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through next Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday: I am monitoring another storm system.
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No major changes.
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No major concerns locally.
I will monitor a storm system for Friday and Saturday
Anyone with travel plans north should monitor updates forecasts tonight into Sunday night. Heavy snow is likely.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
