Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered rain and snow showers.  A dusting at most.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor bridges and overpasses if a dusting of snow falls.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday  Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Colder.  Any remaining precipitation will push off to the east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 7 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~  20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Moonrise: 1:43 PM
Moonset: 2:41 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 35° (coldest before 9 am)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~  32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Moonrise: 2:17 PM
Moonset: 3:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A slight chance of afternoon showers.  Mainly over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After  2 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~  46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:58 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Saturday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~  38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:48 PM
Moonset: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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Sunday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~  38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:47 PM
Moonset: 7:38 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Cold today into Thursday night.
   2.   Scattered rain and rain/snow showers today.   A dusting, at most.
   3.   Warming trend Friday into Monday.
   4.   Rain chances return Friday night into Saturday.  Centered on Friday night and Saturday morning.
   5.   Another rain event early next week.  Active pattern.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone

We are waking up to a mixture of sun and clouds.  It is chilly over much of the region.

Here were the 6 am temperatures

We did have some rain and snow showers overnight.  Those continue to move off to the east.

A fast moving clipper system will bring some clouds today.  A few rain and snow showers will accompany the front.

At 6 am, radar did shows some snow over southeast MO.  It is moving east.

For the most part, temperatures should be above freezing during the precipitation.  What does fall will be light.  Thus, I don’t expect any significant impacts.  A dusting , at most.

Precipitation should come to an end before sunset tonight.  Keep in mind, much of the region may see no precipitation today.

As long as the precipitation exits before sunset, there won’t be any travel issues.  The concern has always been after sunset.  If moisture were to linger, then there could be icy spots.

For now, I am not concerned.

Thursday will be chilly and dry.  Same for Thursday night.

On Friday, another system will begin to move towards the region with a shower or two possible during the afternoon over southeast Missouri.

Rain chances ramp up area-wide Friday night into at least Saturday afternoon.  Showers may linger into Saturday night.  See the future-cast radars below.

Here are the expected rain totals from that system.

I have a low end chance of rain on Sunday.

Yet another system is forecast to bring showers to the region Sunday night into Monday night.  Model guidance is mixed on the coverage for that event.  I will need to monitor trends.  For now, I capped rain chances at 30%.  Those will likely need adjusting as confidence in the system increases.

Perhaps a rumble of thunder with that system.  I will monitor it.  For now, no severe weather anticipated.

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Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The EC model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the GFS model.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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