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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook will be updated on Sunday, December 11th (afternoon hours)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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December 10, 2016
Saturday Night: Cloudy. A 10% for light rain or sleet/snow mix.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range. Temperatures may rise overnight. The low temperatures may occur early.
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: South and southeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated if anything.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:45 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
December 11, 2016
Sunday: Cloudy. Dry morning. Rain developing (mainly during the afternoon). Cold. Breezy.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: 30-40 degrees
Winds: South at 10-20 mph with gusts over 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70% Perhaps mostly dry during the morning. Rain increases through the day.
Coverage of precipitation? Becoming widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely. Missouri Ozarks perhaps a mix.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for the afternoon hours.
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 3:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. Rain. Moderate rain possible. Cold.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: 30-35 degrees
Winds: Variable at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 100% . TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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December 12, 2016
Monday: Cloudy during the morning hours. Rain ending from west to east during the morning. A mix of sun and clouds is possible as the day wears on. Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways during the morning hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degrees
Winds: West/northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? Rain ends late Sunday night into Monday morning from west to east MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Diminishing through late Sunday night into Monday morning
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 3:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: Variable at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 13, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 44-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:16 a.m. Full Moon
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 18 to 22 degrees
Winds: North and northwest at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Not at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 14, 2016
Wednesday: Some clouds. Breezy. A mix of sun and clouds. Cold. Well below normal temperatures. Perhaps a flurry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20 to 30 degrees
Winds: North and northeast at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely. Flurries?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16-24 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 6-12 mph diminshing to 0-5 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 15, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 26-32 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-25 degrees
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cold.
What impact is expected? None anticipated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16-24 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-16 degrees
Winds: North early and becoming variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 16, 2016
Friday: Some clouds. Perhaps increasing clouds. I will be monitoring a new storm system.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-28 degrees
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Cloudy. I will be monitoring a new storm system.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-25 degrees
Winds: Becoming north at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Rain! Cold rain!
- Cold and unsettled pattern
- BIG Christmas give-away contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
Weather synopsis:
Key items to remember:
A. We should avoid frozen precipitation from this system
B. Closely monitoring precipitation chances mid-week and late in the week.
C. Another cold wave in the charts.
Saturday Night and Sunday:
Cloudy for Saturday night. Temperatures might actually rise overnight. This is because of a developing low pressure that will move to our north. That means we are on the warm side of the system.
Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. If the low passes to your northwest and north then your winds will be out of the south. Winds out of the south will bring warmer temperatures and higher dew points.
Here is the system on the NAM model. An area of low pressure over Iowa moving into Wisconsin. We are on the warm side. Look at all that snow to our north. Just about where I thought it would be. If you have to travel north then you should monitor travel conditions. Icy roads likely.
Here is the latest probability outlook for this system (for our local area). Slim pickings on the probabilities.
Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. Some moderate rain will be possible.
This image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.
These are precipitation totals from now until Monday
Click images to enlarge
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Zoomed in on our area
Zoomed in on our area
Let’s take a look at some of the models. They vary GREATLY in rainfall totals.
The WRF model is the lowest totals.
Here is the GFS model guidance. It has more rain than the NAM.
Lastly, this is the GEM model. It has the heaviest totals.
The NAM is likely underperforming rainfall totals for this system. I think the GFS and GEM have the right idea. Moisture return should be decent as the low winds up to our north. Slow moving front. Decent potential for 0.30″ to 0.60″. Locally higher possible.
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Temperature Outlook
Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through next Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated all aspects of the forecast.
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No major concerns locally. Small risk for wintry mix after 6 am tomorrow morning for the Missouri Ozarks.
I will monitor another system mid-week and another one next weekend.
Anyone with travel plans north should monitor updates forecasts tonight into Sunday night. Heavy snow is likely.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
