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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Thursday night to Thursday night.
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching for a light wintry mix Sunday afternoon and night. Another chance Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. A cold front will sweep across the region Friday/Saturday. Lightning is possible.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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December 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 40° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:05 AM
Moonset: 1:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing from the west moving east and northeast. That means the rain will arrive in southeast Missouri first. It may not arrive across our eastern counties until late in the day. Keep in mind, it will be dry most of the day over portions of the region. The rain will slowly spread east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Becoming numerous over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 44° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west/southwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:17 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers likely early. Ending or tapering west to east as the day wears on. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before sunrise and then becoming scattered early. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the day. Rain will end early in the day.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:30 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Chilly. A chance of light rain or a wintry mix. Mainly after noon.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 8 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Especially over southeast Missouri. Spreading east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 28° SE MO 26° to 28° South IL 26° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 25° to 28° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:46 AM
Moonset: 3:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Decreasing clouds as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 5% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 26° South IL 24° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 25° to 28° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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December 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of afternoon rain/snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A slight chance of a wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a light wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a light wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 6:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 18th: At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated December 10th and 11th.
Rain arrives Friday and Saturday. Nothing extreme.
I am watching a light wintry mix Sunday afternoon and night and again Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Friday/Saturday cold front means rain chances are increasing.
- Colder air will arrive behind the front Saturday into early next week.
- Light wintry mix Sunday PM and again Tuesday PM and Wednesday.
The main weather story over the next 48 hours will be mild temperatures Thursday and Friday.
Highs will reach into the 60s ahead of a strong cold front.
That is because we will be in the southerly flow ahead of the storm system.
This system will bring snow to our north and rain to our region.
You can see the clouds gathering in the southwest United States.
The rain will first arrive over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the day on Friday. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
Chances increase during the PM vs the AM hours.
The front will then slowly move across our region Friday night into Saturday. The rain will end EARLY Saturday. Much of the day may end up dry across at least most of the region. Rain will end last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
An area of low pressure will develop and push into Missouri and move northeast into Illinois and eventually the Great Lakes.
This deepening low pressure center will produce heavy snow across portions of Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
It won’t be cold enough for snow in our local area. We will be left with rain. A few thunderstorms may also be embedded within the rain shield.
The good news is that I am not forecasting severe weather.
December is typically our lull when it comes to severe weather.
Rain totals of 0.20″ to 0.50″ are anticipated. Locally heavier totals are possible. Especially over southeast Missouri.
Either way, this is not a heavy rain event.
Strong and gusty winds will develop because of the deepening area of low pressure. Nothing too extreme. Gusts to around 30 mph will be possible Friday night into Saturday night.
A second weaker wave may bring some light rain or rain/snow mix to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Another system around Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Monitor updates.
It will turn colder behind the front. See the daily details above.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Canadian Model Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 11th through December 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 18th through December 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 25th through January 7th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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