August 9th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monday through Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce wind damage over the upcoming week. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely. There is an isolated tornado risk if a storm can latch onto a boundary.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce excessive rain. Locally heavy downpours can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes. Same as recent weeks.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Monday into Thursday. Expect 100 to 105 degrees. Occasionally, higher.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 9th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Storms are possible.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 10th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense, especially over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Chances are lower after midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 11th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms are again possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Chances are lower after 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 12th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 96° / South IL 94° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° / West KY 94° to 96° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:20 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 13th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the west southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning a bit cooler and less humid. A cold front will push through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Higher chances before midnight vs after
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:27 AM
Moonset: 10:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 14th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 11:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 15th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. This graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through August 13th: There is a chance of a few thunderstorms producing wind damage. There is also an isolated tornado risk. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Sometimes these storms can latch onto a boundary and rotate.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Hot and muggy.
2. Thunderstorm chances.
3. Cold front arrives Thursday and exits the region Friday night.
4. Cooler and drier Saturday and Sunday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

If you must work outside, then be careful with high heat index values. It will be muggy this week.

Monitor watches and warnings. A few storms could be severe this week.

Weather Discussion

Much of the region experienced rain over the last 12 to 24 hours. There were some reports of wind damage in Butler County, Missouri, as well.

Rain totals of 0.00″ to over 3″ were reported in the region. Here are the radar estimated rain totals. I picked up over 1.2″ at The Weather Observatory! Much needed rain.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

The rain is not over. Weak disturbances will continue to move through the region over the next few days. Each one could pop showers and thunderstorms. I have chances in the 20% to 40% range. There may be adjustments if a thunderstorm complex forms.

We had several thunderstorm complexes that formed Sunday/Sunday night. Thus, the coverage peaked. That could happen again, but signals area mixed in the guidance as to placement and timing of any MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes).

Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Perhaps isolated wind damage reports. The primary concern will be the locally heavy downpours and lightning. Typical for the Month of August.

Here is how the current percent numbers look like. The date/time is located at the upper left. It is in Zulu time. 00z = 7 pm and 12z is 7 am.

These are 12-hour rain probabilities. So 0z Tuesday would be 7 PM Monday (zulu time). That means 7 am Monday to 7 pm Monday rain chances. 12z Tuesday would be 7 pm Monday to 7 am Tuesday. 12-hou rain chances. You get the idea.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us into Friday evening. Some of the guidance pushes the front far enough south to end the rain chances Friday evening. Other data continues the rain chances into Friday night and perhaps even Saturday.

On my typed forecast, at the top of the page, I bring the bulk of the rain activity to an end Friday night.

You are looking at an animation of what the rain chances are (% wise) into the coming days.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

The other weather story, through Thursday, will be the heat and high dew points.

It is going to fell like summer. Anyone that receives rain will be even muggier. Dew points will be the air you wear type numbers. Not the best for outdoor work.

The high dew points will combine with temperatures in the 90s for heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. There will be pockets of 105 to 110 degrees. Hot.

Your body cares about the heat index. The heat index is what your body responds to. These numbers can be dangerous if you are outside too long.

Double click images on this page to enlarge them.

Monday heat index value forecast

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.