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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. I am monitoring late Sunday night into Friday of next week. Confidence in the timing is low. Monitor future updates. Chances are higher over Missouri Sunday night into Tuesday night. I am starting to zero in on Wednesday through Friday for the higher rain probabilities area-wide.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Monitor updates. Severe storms are possible next week. Confidence in the timing is low. Monitor future updates. I am starting to zero in on Wednesday through Friday for higher probabilities of showers and thunderstorms.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching for the potential of locally heavy rain next week. Confidence in the timing is low. Monitor future updates. I am starting to zero in on Wednesday through Friday.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 5. Medium risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 5. Medium risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Dry conditions will continue today through the weekend. RH values during this time will dip to 40-50% for afternoon minimums. Northerly transport winds at 7-12 kts and deep boundary layer mixing of 4000-6000 ft will result in generally favorable conditions for smoke dispersal. A turn to a more unsettled pattern will begin on Monday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Light N NE wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 10:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:53 AM
Moonset: 10:48 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a late night showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:53 AM
Moonset: 11:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:56 PM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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- Beautiful weekend ahead of us.
- Some locations will dip into the 50s!
- Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances next week.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Well, our beautiful weekend has arrived. I certainly hope everyone can go outside and enjoy it.
It will feel more like September than August!
Temperatures will be mild. Humidity levels will be very low. Low dew points. All of that equals nice weather today through Sunday.
We have earned a nice weekend. It has been a long, hot, and stormy summer.
Monitoring precipitation chances Sunday night into much of next week.
I continue to monitor the risk of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through much of next week. I continue to struggle with the timing, coverage, and intensity of the showers and thunderstorms.
Certainly the atmosphere will be prone to the development of locally strong/intense storms. Locally heavy rain will occur where storms train over the same area.
We have at least a low end chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and Monday.
I am starting to zero in on Wednesday through Friday for higher probabilities.
With that said, confidence in the forecast remains low.
I have capped precipitation probabilities at 20 to 30%. With time, those numbers will increase. That will occur once confidence in the final forecast increases. If you have outdoor plans next week, then monitor updates.
Thunderstorm complexes (called MCS’s) are tricky to forecast days in advance. Normally, we don’t have a handle on them until the last 18 to 24 hours. MCS’s are possible this week.
We have experienced numerous MCS’s this summer. Most of our summer rainfall actually comes from MCS’s.
The best advice is to monitor updated forecasts. Monitor the daily blog and rain probabilities. There will be adjustments as confidence in the final forecast increases.
I could not cancel any plans Sunday night.
Next week will be warmer and increasingly humid, as well. Dew points will be on the rise. Dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.
Let me show you some model data.
These are rainfall totals.
There are some differences in the model data. A lot of data keeps the bulk of the rain over Missouri westward through 7 am Wednesday.
Quite a bit of data brings the thunderstorm chances farther east Wednesday into Friday.
I will need to monitor trends in the guidance. I do believe the late Sunday night into Tuesday night rain chances may remain mostly over Missouri. Then, it will push east mid to late week.
Here are the model forecast rainfall totals through 7 PM Monday. Everything favors Missouri vs the rest of our area. At least for the moderate totals.
EC model through Monday evening. Rainfall totals.
GFS rainfall totals through 7 pm Monday.
NWS blend of models. Rainfall totals through 7 pm Monday.
Now, let’s draw this out through Wednesday morning. You can see some shift eastward with the rain.
At this time, I am leaning towards Wednesday through Friday for higher rain probabilities area-wide.
NOAA WPC rainfall forecast through Wednesday morning.
GFS model rainfall forecast through Wednesday morning.
EC model data. rainfall forecast through Wednesday morning.
Blend of models rainfall forecast through Wednesday morning.
I can’t rule out severe weather with the MCS’s. It is not uncommon for MCS’s to produce damaging wind. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a severe risk zone. They have said they would like to get a bit closer to the time-frame of interest before drawing a risk zone. Again, confidence in the details isn’t great. Not yet, at least.
Monitor updates. As always.
Have a super weekend.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the NSSL Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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