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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be intense with heavy rain and gusty winds. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong winds. Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? A level one out of five risk. Low risk. Concern would be a few storms with strong and gusty winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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August 7, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Quite a few clouds. Mild. Isolated storms possible, especially in western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Most of the rain should have ended.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North and northwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms before sunset.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early, then ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 9, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A late night thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 10, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and the latest forecast.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possi
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 11, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning. Lesser chances during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 12, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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August 13, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates. There will be a cold front near our region. Rain is possible.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Sunday night into Monday: Thunderstorms are likely on Sunday evening and night. Rain chances will start to diminish as we move later into the night.
Thunderstorms may remain over western Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday, but most of the precipitation should have ended. Small chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms.
Severe weather risk is low, but not zero. Wind being the main concern.
Monday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A couple of storms possible on Monday. Lightning would be the concern.
Wednesday through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I will be monitoring thunderstorm chances as we push towards the end of the week. Perhaps the best chances will arrive Friday night or Saturday
Near zero tornado risk over the coming days.
Not anticipating large hail. Small risk Sunday for strong storms.
Here is the damaging wind forecast
Your live local city view interactive radars
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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