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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
** UPDATED SUNDAY AT 9 AM **
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monday through Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce wind damage over the upcoming week. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce excessive rain. Locally heavy downpours can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes. Same as recent weeks.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Monday into Wednesday. Expect 100 to 105 degrees. Occasionally, higher. Clouds and thunderstorm chances may ramp up towards the middle of next week. That would lower the heat index values. A bit early for certainties. If the front stalls to our north then we will remain in the heat.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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** UPDATED SUNDAY AT 9 AM **
August 6th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing cloud cover. A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / the rest of SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / the rest of South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Early evening
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / the rest of SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / the rest of South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Moonrise: 3:51 AM
Moonset: 7:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 7th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° / the rest of SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / the rest of South IL 88° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 88° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 8 to 16 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 7:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 8th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the south at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: From the south southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Isolated high winds. Low-end severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:54 AM
Moonset: 8:30 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 9th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Storms are possible.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 10th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A scattered thunderstorm will again be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Chances are lower after midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 11th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms are again possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Chances are lower after 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 12th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:20 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 13th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the west southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning a bit cooler and less humid. A cold front will push through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Higher chances before midnight vs after
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:27 AM
Moonset: 10:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 14th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 11:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 15th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
Double click the image to enlarge it.
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Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.
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Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.
Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. This graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through August 12th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warming trend is underway.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances.
- Hot weekend into next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Not a lot going on in the weather world.
We have an upper level system passing through the region today. This will bring clouds and a few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. The bulk of the region will receive no measurable rain. Other locations may pick up less than 0.10″. Not much. Many won’t even know there is a system in the region other than the increase in clouds.
Clouds will help keep temperatures a bit lower today. It will be warm with highs mostly in the 80s.
Here is how the current percent numbers look like. The date/time is located at the upper left. It is in Zulu time. 00z = 7 pm and 12z is 7 am.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Some low-end shower and thunderstorm chances. The bulk stays to our north where several thunderstorm complexes are forecast to track over the coming days.
You are looking at an animation of what the rain chances are (% wise) into the coming days. Low-end chances (mostly dry).
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Otherwise, increasing heat and humidity will begin to make it feel uncomfortable over the coming days. Today will be fine. Tomorrow, as well.
Saturday will see temperatures begin to creep upward a bit more with dew points rising. By Sunday, you will be able to tell a difference in the heat and humidity. Dew points (that is what makes it feel muggy) will rise into the 70s. That will be uncomfortable, again.
This will continue until at least Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. To knock the heat down, we will need another cold front. That is what we will be watching towards the middle of next week.
I am watch cloud cover Tuesday into Friday. A chance of a few thunderstorms, as well. That could help keep heat index values a bit lower. Either way, it is going to be hot and muggy. Highs around or above 90 with heat index values around or a bit above 100 degrees. Summer weather.
Here are the forecasted heat index numbers Sunday onward. Remember, your body only cares about the heat index. That is what your physical body responds to.
Sunday
Those cooler patches are where this model believes thunderstorms may form.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 6th through August 12th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are updated after 9 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
These are updated after 9 AM
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers August 13th through August 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are updated after 9 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
These are updated after 9 AM
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers August 17th through August 30th
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Precipitation outlook
Temperature departures
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September Temperature Outlook
September precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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