Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Good morning, everyone.  I hope you are having a nice week.

We did have a couple of thunderstorms yesterday in the region.  Where they occurred, they produced some downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.

Most areas remained dry.

This morning’s weather map shows quiet weather over our region.

We do have some patchy dense fog.  Use care.

A large complex of storms was moving through South Dakota and Minnesota.  That is moving southeast, but it will dissipate before reaching our local area.

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We will have a relatively stagnant weather pattern through next Tuesday.  I can’t rule out an isolated heat-of-the-day pop-up storm, but the vast majority of the region will remain dry.

Currently, I have a 20% chance of storms from Sunday through Wednesday.    We will see if one of those days trends higher with probabilities.

For now, it does not appear to be widespread precipitation.

I know some areas could use a little rain.  It is becoming dry.

Here is the 14-day percent of normal rainfall.  As you can see, our region has a lot of brown.  That means dry.  Of course, there have been pockets of locally heavy thunderstorms over the past week.  Typical for August.  Feast or famine, as I like to say.

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The weather may become more active towards the middle/end of next week.  Confidence in that happening, this far out, is low.  I will keep an eye on it.  Perhaps some higher shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the region.

It will be warm this week.  Temperatures will range from the upper eighties to the lower nineties for daytime highs.  And around seventy degrees for overnight lows.  We are not going back to the extreme numbers we saw over the last two weeks.  Thankfully.

It will be a bit humid, at times.  Normal August weather.  Summer isn’t over, quite yet!

The extended EC and GFS model output shows warm weather ahead of us.

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The GFS model is quite warm in the long range.  Let’s see how this trends in the long range.

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Here is the NWS blend of model temperatures.  It does not go out quite as far as the other two models.

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Here is my mugmometer.  How muggy will it feel?

Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside.  It will be a bit more humid/sticky as we move through the week, but nothing extreme.

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No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next ten days.

I will keep an eye on mid to late August for a higher risk of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.  For now, nothing of concern.

Have a super Wednesday!

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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