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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 5, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on. Thunderstorms will first arrive in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A few storms, during the overnight hours, could produce locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Southeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and then increasing coverage overnight into the morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars this evening.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A bit warmer. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms. If one of the complexes holds together, a bit more than anticipated, then rain would be more widespread.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain possible. Small risk for strong winds with a few of the thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for strong winds with some storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mild. Gusty winds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? A level one out of five risk. Low risk. Concern would be a few storms with strong and gusty winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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August 7, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Quite a few clouds. Mild. Isolated storms possible, especially in western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Most of the rain should have ended.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North and northwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 9, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance for a shower over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 10, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 11, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. More humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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August 12, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Saturday night into Monday: Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday night. A few storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Small risk for damaging winds.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be Sunday into Sunday evening. Heavy rain is a concern. Severe weather risk is low, but not zero. Wind being the main concern.
Monday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A couple of storms possible on Monday. Lightning would be the concern.
Wednesday through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I will be monitoring thunderstorm chances as we push towards the end of the week.
We will have lightning to deal with over the coming days. Highest chance is late Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Near zero tornado risk over the coming days.
Not anticipating large hail. Small risk Sunday for strong storms.
Here is the damaging wind forecast
I hope you are having a nice weekend. We do have showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some of you need rain. We will see if nature will deliver.
Your live local city view interactive radars
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Live lightning tracker with zoom and pan features. You can see each bolt and adjust your viewing area. Lightning tracking website
https://wtalk.co/KAZYDQHT
A storm system is approaching our region from western Missouri. A couple of MCS’s are going to move east/southeast on Saturday night into Sunday. These systems will spread showers and thunderstorms into our area.
The best chance for rain will likely be on Sunday and Sunday evening. The precipitation will likely be scattered. There remain some questions about coverage.
If you have outdoor plans, on Sunday, then check radars.
Here are some future-cast radar images for Saturday night into Sunday.
These images are models. They are for guidance and not gospel. That means they won’t be exact. Take the general idea from them. Precipitation maps, from computer models, are rarely spot on.
6 PM Saturday
10 PM Saturday
5 AM Sunday
10 AM Sunday
1 PM Sunday
4 PM Sunday
7 PM Sunday
Although organized severe weather is unlikely, a few storms will produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.
If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some spots could pick up more than an inch of rain. Generally, rainfall totals will range from 0.25″ to 0.50″. Pockets of higher rain likely.
The system will pull away on Monday. Precipitation chances will dwindle through the day.
Tuesday into Thursday will likely remain dry with below normal temperatures.
The next chance for precipitation should arrive on Thursday or perhaps more likely Friday. It will become a bit warmer and more humid during that time, as well.
High temperatures, for the week ahead, will likely remain in the low to middle eighties. Overnight lows mostly in the sixties.
Let’s take a look at the six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature and precipitation outlooks.
These are probability maps. Odds favor below normal temperatures in the deepest blue zone. This is for August 10th through August 14th.
This next image is the precipitation outlook for the same time period
This next update is for August 14th through August 18th
This graphic is for temperatures
Precipitation for the same time period
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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