August 5th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Low chances of lightning through Tuesday. I can’t rule out some periodic very isolated thunderstorms in the heat of the day. The odds, however, are low. Perhaps a better chance along a cold front Tuesday night into Thursday. Still several days to monitor that portion of the forecast.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Sunday into Wednesday. Expect 100 to 105 degrees. Occasionally, higher. Clouds and thunderstorm chances may ramp up towards the middle of next week. That would lower the heat index values. A bit early for certainties. If the front stalls to our north then we will remain in the heat.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 5th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / the rest of SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / the rest of South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 05
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / the rest of SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / the rest of South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: From the south at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 2:58 AM
Moonset: 6:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 6th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing cloud cover. A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / the rest of SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / the rest of South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Early evening
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / the rest of SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / the rest of South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Moonrise: 3:51 AM
Moonset: 7:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 7th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° / the rest of SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / the rest of South IL 88° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 88° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 8 to 16 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 7:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 8th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the south at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: From the south southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 5:54 AM
Moonset: 8:30 PM
The phase of the moon: New

August 9th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated during the evening
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 10th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated during the evening
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 11th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 12th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:20 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them. These five graphics are from Thursday.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through August 10th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Slow arming trend. Increasingly muggy late week into next week.
2. Some clouds, haze, and smoke from time to time.
3. Monitoring a potential cold front the middle of next week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

No weather concerns today. We have a nice weather pattern underway. This will continue through today and tonight.

Check out the Weather Observatory this morning. Looking north/northeast. You can see the patchy fog and sunrise.

There will be several weak fast moving disturbances that advance across the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity should remain to our north through Sunday morning.

I will keep an eye on southeast Missouri into the weekend. Some data pops a shower or two in that area.

Overall, this is not a bad weather pattern for early August. Unless you need or want rain. Some of us need rain. Others do not. Seems to be the usual case this time of the year.

Thus far, we have avoided official drought in the region. With that said, portions of extreme southern Illinois missed out on a lot of the late July rain events. They need rain.

Check out the 14-day rain totals (notice the patchy area where less rain fell).

Here is the anomaly during the same time-frame.

Our next decent chance of precipitation won’t arrive until the middle of next week. That would be associated with a cold front dropping in from the north. Since that is still several days away, confidence is not all that great in the final outcome. I do have low-end thunderstorm chances in the forecast during that time-frame. I will adjust as data merges on a solution.

Here is how the current percent numbers look like.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Notice how most of the system pass us to the north. That is typical for late summer. The jet-stream is well north of our region.

There will likely be adjustments once we get past day four. Mainly towards the middle of next week. We will watch a cold front.

You are looking at an animation of what the rain chances are (% wise) into the coming days. Low-end chances (mostly dry).

Otherwise, increasing heat and humidity will begin to make it feel uncomfortable over the coming days. Today will be fine. Tomorrow, as well.

Saturday will see temperatures begin to creep upward a bit more with dew points rising. By Sunday, you will be able to tell a difference in the heat and humidity. Dew points (that is what makes it feel muggy) will rise into the 70s. That will be uncomfortable, again.

This will continue until at least Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. To knock the heat down, we will need another cold front. That is what we will be watching towards the middle of next week.

Here are the forecasted heat index numbers Sunday onward. Remember, your body only cares about the heat index. That is what your physical body responds to.

Sunday

Those cooler patches are where this model believes thunderstorms may form.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.