August 5, 2025: A few storms. Warmer.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

August 5th through August 11th

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible today. A small chance on Wednesday and Saturday. Scattered lightning is possible on Sunday and Monday of next week.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Slow-moving summer storms can produce isolated torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. Organized or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. I will monitor Thursday through Monday. Temperatures may approach or slightly exceed 90 degrees.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

Here is my concern meter through Thursday. No significant concerns. A few lightning strikes are possible today and tomorrow.

Here is the extended outlook. This takes us through next Monday. Extreme weather is not anticipated.

Keep in mind, typical August/summer thunderstorms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

A decent week of weather ahead of us. No significant adjustments to the going forecast.
A few showers and thunderstorms today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible on Wednesday.
A slow warming trend as we move through the new work week. A bit more humid mid to late week. Nothing extreme. Normal August weather.
A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

Good morning, everyone

Well, some of you picked up quite a bit of rain on Monday. Other locations remained dry.

August storms can produce torrential downpours. I did see a few locations received two inches (or more). That was in southern Illinois. The heaviest rain fell in Jefferson, Wayne, and Hamilton Counties. The NWS even issued a brief flash flood warning for Hamilton and Wayne County.

Keep in mind, remember storms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

Today will be a repeat of yesterday for most areas. Partly sunny. A chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Many areas will remain dry. A few spots will pick up a downpour.

The chance of rain will be a bit higher east of the Mississippi River vs west of the Mississippi River.

Again, as mentioned above, we will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Not everyone will experience rain. I know some areas need rain.

Here are today’s rain probabilities (%).

At 5 AM, there was one shower near Butler County, Missouri. I suspect that will dissipate shortly. See the live radar links at the bottom of the page.

This morning’s satellite shows quite a few clouds in the region.

This morning’s weather map shows a frontal boundary to our north and south. A weak trough was positioned over our region.

That trough is the reason for the scattered showers and thunderstorms.

We will have a warming trend this week. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees by the middle and end of the week. We are not going back to the extreme numbers we saw over the last two weeks.

It will be a bit humid, at times. Normal August weather. Summer isn’t over, quite yet!

The extended GFS and EC model output shows warm weather ahead of us.

Here is my mugmometer. How muggy will it feel?

Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside. It will be a bit more humid/sticky as we move through the week, but nothing extreme.

Thursday through Saturday appear to be shaping up dry and warm. I did include a 10% chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday. Most likely, it will be dry and warm.

I am watching Sunday and Monday for a return of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

At this time, no extreme weather is anticipated. Typical August weather.

No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next ten days.

Have a great day!

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.