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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 4, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cooler. Less humid. Pleasant night. Great camping weather.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
Winds: North/northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph early becoming variable at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 5, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny before 1 pm. Increasing clouds late. A pleasant day, overall.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 76 to 84 TN ~ 76 to 84
Winds: Morning northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming more southerly through the afternoon hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Mostly likely none. I will be watching rain move through Missouri Saturday afternoon. I can’t completely rule out it moving into some of my forecast counties late in the day (SE MO, mainly).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Southeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (mainly late)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps increasing coverage late
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A bit warmer. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for strong winds with some storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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August 7, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated storms possible, especially along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated storms along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Maybe isolated wet roadways and lightning near the KY/TN border.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 9, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for showers late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 10, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Friday night into Saturday evening: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of thunderstorms, mainly over southeast Missouri, late Saturday afternoon but more likely as we move into Saturday night.
Saturday night into Monday: Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night into Sunday night. A few storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Small risk for damaging winds.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be Sunday into Sunday night. Heavy rain is a concern.
We will have lightning to deal with over the coming days. Highest chance is on Sunday.
Near zero tornado risk over the coming days.
Not anticipating large hail. Small risk Sunday for strong storms.
Some of you picked up rain on Thursday and Thursday night and others remained dry. Same song and dance as the past month or so. It seems some of us can’t buy rain.
We will have another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to push out of eastern Kansas and western Missouri late on Saturday and track into our region late Saturday night into Sunday.
There is a chance for locally heavy rain, but the exact placement of the heavier rain totals remains questionable. This will be decided by the placement of a warm front and track of an MCS. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that are common during the summer months.
If the MCS were to track over our area, then widespread rain would occur. I am not all that confident as to rainfall totals. Generally 0.30″ to 0.60″ would be the best forecast, for now. Pockets of much higher totals are possible, if the MCS holds together.
The WPC has placed us in a marginal to slight risk for flash flooding on Sunday
Green is the marginal level one risk. Yellow is the slight or level two risk.
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will rise into the 78 to 84 degree range. Dew points on Saturday will be nice. There should be a nice feel to the atmosphere.
A bit more humid on Sunday, with the rain chances.
High temperatures Monday through Thursday should remain at or below normal. Expect mostly lower to middle 80’s. Normal high temperatures would be middle to upper 80’s. Not too bad for summer!
Here are four models and four rainfall totals for this event
NAM guidance
NAM 3K high resolution
GFS guidance
Canadian guidance
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
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There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
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