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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Chances of lightning are low through Tuesday. I can’t rule out some isolated heat of the day thunderstorms Sunday into Tuesday. For now, chances appear 20% or less.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain in less than 30-minutes.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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August 3rd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Some increase in clouds. Haze and smoke again possible. That would cause the sky to appear milky white, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / the rest of SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / the rest of South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / the rest of SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 82° / the rest of South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 1:31 AM
Moonset: 4:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 4th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some haze and smoke.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / the rest of South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / the rest of SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / the rest of South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 2:11 AM
Moonset: 5:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 5th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / the rest of SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / the rest of South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 05
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / the rest of SE MO 60° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / the rest of South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 2:58 AM
Moonset: 6:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 6th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. It now appears Friday will be dry. I will monitor a weak system approaching from the northwest. ANy precipitation, would be isolated.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / the rest of SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / the rest of South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A bit warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / the rest of SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / the rest of South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Moonrise: 3:51 AM
Moonset: 7:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 7th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° / the rest of SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / the rest of South IL 88° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 88° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:51 AM
Moonset: 7:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 8th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 5:54 AM
Moonset: 8:30 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 9th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
Double click the image to enlarge it.
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Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.
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Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.
These five graphics will not be updated today.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
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Today through August 7th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Nice today into Friday.
- Some clouds, haze, and smoke from time to time.
- Heat returns late weekend into next week.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
There are not any significant weather concerns through Sunday.
I am watching several weak disturbances. One of those pushes across the region Friday and another Sunday. I can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm but for the most part it appears the region will be dry.
Temperatures will be nice today into Friday/Saturday. Highs in the 80s, for the most part. Enjoy.
There is going to be a return of the heat. Unfortunately, for those who don’t like hot weather, the heat will begin to ramp up Saturday and Sunday.
More notable will be the heat next week. Daily highs will be in the 90s with heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees. This would be Sunday into at least Wednesday. The heat may last longer.
I am watching a cold front next Wednesday and Thursday. The model guidance is a bit scattered on if that will indeed bring us some showers and thunderstorms.
For now, I am monitoring trends in the guidance.
Either way, summer is not over.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain on the models
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain on the models
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain on the models
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain on the models
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 3rd through August 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers August 10th through August 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers August 13th through August 26th
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Precipitation outlook
Temperature departures
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September Temperature Outlook
September precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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