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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance today into Wednesday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain will be possible today over Kentucky and portions of northwest Tennessee (near the lakes)
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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August 31st 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower chances elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over Kentucky/Tennessee. Isolated elsewhere.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A chance of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Otherwise, rain ending over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 1st 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Then, clearing sky conditions. A chance of morning showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Morning
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:49 AM
Moonset: 4:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 5:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some PM clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. More likely late at night vs earlier in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: More likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:37 AM
Moonset: 5:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 6:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny with a slight chance of morning showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 7:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:51 AM
Moonset: 7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
Double click the image to enlarge it.
Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.
Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through September 7th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- The remnants of Hurricane Ida will pull away from the region later today and this evening.
- Nice weather ahead of us.
- Watching weekend rain chances.
Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Very heavy rain fell over portions of the region Monday. Rain totals range from 0.00″ to over 4.00″. Flash flooding was reported in several counties.
Portions of Owensboro were particularly hard with numerous reports of flooded cars and even some businesses.
The heaviest rain fell along and north of a line from Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties in southeast Missouri east northeast towards the Kentucky/Indiana state line.
Additional showers and thunderstorms fell south of that line.
Here was the 7:30 AM radar estimated rain totals. A WIDE range. Double click to enlarge the image.
The bulk of the remnants of Hurricane Ida continue to push off to the east/northeast through the Tennessee and Lower Ohio River Valleys.
The remnants are brushing our region.
We will still have a chance of showers today. Mainly across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The further east and southeast you drive, the higher the likelihood of precipitation. Some of the rain may be heavy in south-central Kentucky.
All in all the event has unfolded as expected outside of the early forecasts when the system was supposed to be further north and west. Once we adjusted it south and east it stayed on that track.
Some thunderstorms may push through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening and tonight. These storms will come in from St Louis. There are questions about how far south they will survive.
Over the coming days…
You can expect daily highs in the 80s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Lower dew points and humidity, as well. Nice weather.
I will keep an eye on a system Friday into Sunday. Some of the models hint at clouds and a few showers/thunderstorms.
Meteorological Autumn begins September 1st. Meteorologists consider fall to be September, October, and November.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 31st through September 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers September 7th through September 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers September 14th through September 27th
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Precipitation outlook
Temperature departures
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September Temperature Outlook
September precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
October Temperature Outlook
October precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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