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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:27 p.m. Waning crescent
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. We might see some scattered storms approach from the north late tonight. Cold front moving into the region.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
August 31, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy. I will be watching a cold front to our north. Perhaps a bit more coverage on storms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, pea size hail, and heavy rain.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:04 p.m. Waning crescent
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. An evening thunderstorm possible. System should move through our region by Wednesday night. If so, that would bring storm chances to an end. I will monitor the timing.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered. Ending.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a strong storm before 8 pm.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor evening radars
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September 1, 2016
Thursday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid. Pleasant.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Maybe some patchy morning fog.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:39 p.m. New moon
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Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Maybe some patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 2, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:20 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 3, 2016
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 8:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 4, 2016
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Warmer and perhaps a bit more humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 5, 2016
Monday: Labor Day – Partly to mostly sunny. A little warmer and a bit more humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 10:22 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Cold front arrival on Wednesday!
- Some showers and storms along the front for Wednesday and Wednesday evening
- Much cooler and less humid after frontal passage
- Lower dew points
- Nice Labor Day weekend!
The main focus of this update will be a cold front that enters the region on Wednesday.
A couple of storms are possible as Tuesday night.
Speaking of storms! Check out this photograph from Sunday nights storms near Mount Carmel, Illinois. Jeff Blair was the photographer.
The cold front will be bumping into warm and moist air on Wednesday. A few thunderstorms will likely develop on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The risk for severe weather appears minimal. I can’t rule out a strong storm. There is certainly plenty of moisture available for storms to work with. Heavy rain is a concern for some locations. Thunderstorms during the summer months, can produce a quick inch of rain. This can cause brief flooding of some roadways.
Once again, some areas might remain completely dry. If a line of storms forms then probabilities for rain will need to be increased. I have them at forty to fifty percent, for now.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Cooler and drier air arrives on Thursday and should last into Sunday. It might actually last into Monday. Some guidance shows a few showers and thunderstorms over our far far northern counties on Monday. Confidence in that happening is low. Plan on a nice holiday weekend!
Temperatures will be cooler through Sunday. Highs mostly in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Perhaps a bit higher on Sunday. Dew points will fall into the 50’s on Thursday night and Friday. That means a fresh air-mass. A small hint of fall in the air. You will like this air-mass. MUCH MUCH better than recent weeks.
Great football weather for Friday and Saturday night.
Enjoy it!
Check out these dew points for Friday morning. Nice!
Dew point chart
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
This is through Wednesday night.
It wouldn’t surprise me if some areas miss out entirely. Same as recent weeks.
Check out the rainfall forecast for Florida. This is because of the tropical system. Click image to enlarge
Wednesday morning low temperature map
Wednesday afternoon high temperature map
Check out what happens on Thursday and Friday! Much nicer.
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday afternoon high temperature map
Friday morning low temperatures
Friday afternoon high temperatures
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night: A few scattered/isolated storms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Wednesday-Wednesday night: Cold front moves into our region from the north. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front. A few storms could be strong. The main concern would be gusty winds, frequent lightning, pea size hail, and heavy downpours. Small risk for severe storms. Monitor updates.
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No major changes in this update.
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A few storms are possible into Wednesday evening. A few of the storms could be intense. A cold front will push through the region by Wednesday evening and this will shut down the rain chances.
Labor Day weekend looks to be a nice one.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
