August 30, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

A flash flood watch (green zone) has been issued for Tuesday into Tuesday night. 7 AM to 10 PM.

48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance today through Tuesday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is low.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain will be possible today through Tuesday.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 30th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts over our southern counties.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

August 31st 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 1st 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:49 AM
Moonset: 4:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 5:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:37 AM
Moonset: 5:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 6:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 7:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through September 7th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Shower and thunderstorm chances.
2. Tracking the remnants of Hurricane Ida
3. Locally heavy rain.
4. Nice weather Wednesday into the weekend.

Weather advice:

Avoid flooded roadways.

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A fairly complex weather pattern is underway. We are going to have at least scattered showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday night. There will be a period of widespread showers/thunderstorms as the remnants of Hurricane Ida passes to our south/southeast Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Satellite shows those remnants.

Radar

The Hrrr model future-cast radar shows the system pushing north northeast through today and tonight.

Rain totals are going to vary greatly. Some locations may receive NO rain from this event. Keep that in mind.

Let me show you the models and their rain totals. What do you see in common? The heaviest totals will likely be south and east.

The EC model shows that band of heavy rain across Tennessee into Kentucky. Notice the arching. You can see the path of Ida.

Also, notice some of the models show very little rainfall in some counties.

Double-click the images to enlarge them.

The GFS model. Double-click the images to enlarge them.

NAM model.

NAM 3K model.

Hrrr model.

This (below) is the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service rainfall forecast. Again, notice some places receive virtually no rain. Other locations pick up one to three inches.

Totals will vary GREATLY over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This may does not pick up on the potential of thunderstorms training over the same area. Keep that in mind. This is their broad-brushed outlook.

Today’s activity will likely be across southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and then into northwest Kentucky. This is where today’s coverage will be greatest.

South of that area can still experience showers and thunderstorms. It may not be as widespread.

Tonight, the entire region will have scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Both today and tonight, will deliver an opportunity for locally heavy rain. If thunderstorms train over the same area then some locations could easily pick up one to two inches in an hour. If that were to continue for a couple of hours…well you can do the math. The bottom line is that some locations may experience heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Ida will push into the Tennessee Valley today into tomorrow. This system will bring a shield of widespread showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to western Tennessee and western Kentucky. See the future-cast radars.

This shield of rain will drop one to three inches of rain (locally higher) across portions of our region. This will mainly be along a line from northwest Tennessee into the Land Between the Lakes area of western Kentucky and then northeast and east from there. The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will be included.

A flash flood watch has been issued for the above mentioned areas.

The counties in green represent the flash flood watch.

The WPC/NOAA has placed a level one and two risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight across the region. Green is level one. Yellow is level two. What does that mean? It means a few locations could experience flash flooding.

Green is the level one zone. Yellow is the level two zone.

Then, on Tuesday, there will be a level one and two risk across portions of the region. This time, it will mainly be our eastern counties.

Notice how this lines up with some of the flash flood watch.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east Tuesday night. At this time, the chances of rain Wednesday have been lowered below 10%. I believe the rain will have pushed off to the east by Wednesday morning.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.