August 29, 2024: Hot again today. Much cooler air is on the way. Shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Friday through Saturday area-wide. A lower chance Saturday night/Sunday over our southern counties.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. The risk of severe weather appears minimal this weekend. I will keep an eye on it. I can’t rule out some gusty winds with thunderstorms.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. A chance of 100 degrees this afternoon.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. This afternoon.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? LOW RISK. There is a low risk of a few locations reaching 110 degrees through Thursday (heat index).

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Thursday: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Hot and dry conditions today with minimum RH values dropping below 30 percent across portions of west Kentucky and far southern Illinois. Wetting rain chances return on Friday and increase further through Saturday. Rain chances may linger across the south on Sunday before dry weather returns area wide by Labor Day. Some beneficial rains greater than 0.50″ may occur for many locations. Southerly winds the next two days will become northerly Sunday into Monday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Rainfall totals have increased a bit. Fingers crossed. We need the rain.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Near record high temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (north)
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:41 AM
Moonset: 5:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 92° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 92° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 6:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:49 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (south)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot again today. Use care.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday into Saturday. A lower chance Saturday night and Sunday over our southern counties.
3. Drought conditions will worsen this week.
4. Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees today.
5. Much cooler air arrives early next week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Well, we have two more hot days.

Today will be the hottest. As a matter of fact, today may be the hottest day of the week. Some locations will hit the 100 degree mark.

For some, today will be the hottest day of the year. Actual air temperature, at least. Heat index values won’t be the highest of the year. If you remember we had some 110 to 120 degree heat index values earlier in the summer.

Friday will deliver widespread 90s, but with some clouds and storms.

Today should be dry.

We did have some severe thunderstorms yesterday. A few warnings were issued for southern Illinois. Most areas simply remained dry. A few spots picked up one to three inches of rain! Got to love slow moving thunderstorms.

Drought conditions continue to worsen area-wide.

We need a soaking rain to knock down our water deficits. A dying tropical system could do that, but for now that is not in the cards.

The good news is that a cold front will move into the region Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

The bad news is that could mess with some holiday plans.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Sunday along the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Peak rain chances will likely be Friday PM into Saturday afternoon. This is when precipitation probabilities will reach 60%. Some data shows 70% chances. Either way, radar will have some precipitation on it Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will slowly fall to near normal and eventually below average Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The cooler than average temperatures will push into the region Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

As a matter of fact, lows in the 50s will return next week to at least the northern half of the region. Hopefully, they will push all the way through the region. That would be nice after all this hot air.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Typical for summer, slow moving thunderstorms can drop more than an inch of rain in isolated areas. Generally, we are expecting 0.35″ to 0.70″ of rain tomorrow through Sunday.

Here is the latest WPC NOAA rainfall outlook. Totals have increased a bit.

Outdoor activities will want to monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. Lightning will be a concern for campers and those outdoors. If lightning moves into your area, then seek shelter until the storm passes.

For now, the risk of severe weather continues to appear to be minimal Friday and Saturday. I can’t rule out an isolated report of high winds (downburst winds), but widespread severe weather is not in the cards.

Stay weather aware this weekend if you are going to be outdoors. When thunder roars, head indoors!

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.