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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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August 28, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning crescent
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Warm and muggy. An isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Small chance for lightning during the evening. Areas of fog could reduce visibility in some areas.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph. Variable winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 29, 2016
Monday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. High index values.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High. Will need to monitor cloud cover for lower UV indexes.
Moonrise will be at 3:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:46 p.m. Waning crescent
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 30, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. High heat index values.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 4:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:27 p.m. Waning crescent
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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August 31, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible. I will be watching a cold front to our north. Perhaps a bit more coverage on storms. This will depend on how fast the front moves south.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:04 p.m. Waning crescent
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. An evening thunderstorm possible. System should move through our region by Wednesday night. If so, that would bring storm chances to an end. I will monitor the timing.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered. Ending.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 1, 2016
Thursday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid. Pleasant.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Maybe some patchy morning fog.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:39 p.m. New moon
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Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Maybe some patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 2, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:20 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 7:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-64 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 3, 2016
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-84 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 8:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 4, 2016
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Warmer and perhaps a bit more humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm and muggy
- Only isolated storms
- Cold front later this week
- Tropics
Fairly tranquil weather. Seems almost like *gasp* normal summer weather. We have not had anything close to normal since spring. I guess I shouldn’t jinx it.
Hot and muggy weather will continue into Tuesday.
I am watching a cold front for later this week. It may move through our region around Thursday. This front might produce a few more showers and storms. Some of the guidance does not take it all the way through our region. Let’s monitor it over the coming days.
IF the front were to push through our region then cooler temperatures and lower dew points would be the end result. We can hope.
I continue to watch the tropics. A system off the East Coast has become a tropical depression (could become a tropical storm). The other item of interest is in the Caribbean. The same system I have been watching for the last seven days. It has yet to develop. As it moves into the Gulf of Mexico it could develop into a named storm. Too much uncertainty to know for sure. I will continue to monitor.
Here is a satellite view on Sunday morning. I circled the two areas of concern.
Want live hurricane and tropical information? Click here for my tropical weather page.
Check out the dew point map for Monday. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor says.
Dew points
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
This is through Friday. The official NOAA map (below) does not show much. Keep in mind that scattered thunderstorms can quickly produce one to two inches of rain. This map does not take into account the heat of the day thunderstorms. There could be a line of showers and storms with a cold front later this week. Low confidence on that subject.
Monday morning low temperature map
Monday afternoon high temperature map
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night into Tuesday: A few scattered/isolated storms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Wednesday-Friday: I am watching a cold front for the middle or end of next week. No promises, yet. Thunderstorms would accompany the front.
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No major changes in this update.
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Heat index values above 100 degrees.
A few isolated storms over the coming days. Lightning would be the main concern for outdoor events.
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Monitor radars. There will be some spotty storms over the coming days. Lightning is the main concern.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
