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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:05 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Patchy fog. A few showers or storms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Lower visibility in fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east/southeast at <5 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 28, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Heat index values above 98 degrees.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96 to 102 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Probably high.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning crescent
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Warm and muggy. An isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Small chance for lightning during the evening. Areas of fog could reduce visibility in some areas.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph. Variable winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 29, 2016
Monday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. High index values.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High. Will need to monitor cloud cover for lower UV indexes.
Moonrise will be at 3:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:46 p.m. Waning crescent
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 30, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. High heat index values.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 4:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:27 p.m. Waning crescent
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Summer storms can produce isolated reports of high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 31, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. I will be watching a cold front to our north. Perhaps a bit more coverage on storms. This will depend on how fast the front moves south.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 96-102 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:04 p.m. Waning crescent
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm and muggy
- Summer marches on
- Scattered storms
- Cold front later this week?
- Meteorological fall begins September 1st
Well, many of you picked up rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. Coverage was a bit more than anticipated. The reason the coverage was greater was because of a weak disturbance that moved northward out of Mississippi and Alabama. It moved into western Tennessee early in the evening. This disturbance produced a solid line of thunderstorms. The line pushed into western Kentucky during early to mid-evening hours. Some of the storms produced 30-40 mph wind gusts. Some areas picked up one to two inches of rain.
This is what radar looked like on Friday evening (as the line moved into western Kentucky). The solid line of storms is just south of the Kentucky border. It moved north and northwest. It eventually turned northeast once it moved into western Kentucky.
Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from Friday into Saturday morning. Quite a bit of coverage. Yellow represents one inch or more. Scale is on the left side of the page.
Click image to enlarge.
Our air-mass isn’t going to change over the coming days. More hot and muggy days. Warm and humid nights. Expect daily highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. A few spots could hit the middle 90’s, as well. Heat index values will top out in the 96 to 104 degree range.
Winds will be fairly light over the coming days.
Daily thunderstorm chances will top out around 30%. That means there will be some thunderstorms on radar from time to time, but many areas should remain dry.
I am carefully monitoring the charts for a possible cold front on Wednesday night into Friday. Low confidence. If this front reaches our region then you can expect somewhat cooler air and lower dew points. Thunderstorms would also accompany the front.
Temperatures are averaging above normal. No secret there!
Here is the temperature anomaly map for Sunday. Red indicates above normal temperatures.
Look at what MIGHT happen later this week. Below normal temperatures behind the cold front that I mentioned above.
This is for Friday, September 2nd.
I continue to monitor the tropics. A disturbance is moving out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. I can’t rule out this system developing. If you are traveling to Florida or the Gulf of Mexico then monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center.
Here is a satellite view of the disturbance (satellite image taken at 9 am on Saturday morning). The bright white, dark red, red, and yellow colors represent thunderstorms. Those are cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms can reach 60,000′ into the atmosphere. Very cold temperatures at that height.
How much rain is forecast to fall through early next week?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
Sunday morning low temperature map
Sunday afternoon high temperature map
Monday morning low temperatures
Monday afternoon high temperatures
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night into Tuesday: A few scattered/isolated storms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Wednesday-Friday: I am watching a cold front for the middle or end of next week. No promises, yet. Thunderstorms would accompany the front.
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No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns.
A few storms over the coming days. Lightning would be the main concern for outdoor events.
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Monitor radars. There will be some spotty storms over the coming days. Lightning is the main concern.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
