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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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A decent day ahead of us. The isolated overnight showers and thunderstorms have pushed southward.
It is a great morning for coffee on the front porch.
We do have patchy fog in the region.
🌬️ Cooler and Less Humid
A dip in the upper-level weather pattern will keep the area somewhat cooler and less humid through Saturday. Then, a warming trend begins.
- Friday night looks to be the coolest night.
- A few locations could drop into the 50s.
- Afternoon temperatures should remain comfortable.
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You can see that dip in the jet stream on this image.
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That same graphic, for next week, will look like this. Hot desert air moves northeast into our region.
That will set the stage for our next heat wave.
🔥 Heat Returns This Weekend
The large area of high pressure over the Southwest USA will begin moving east this weekend.
- Temperatures climb back into the 90s Sunday.
- Humidity will remain relatively low, so the heat index should stay close to the actual temperature.
- This means it will be hot, but it should not feel as oppressive as some of the heat waves we’ve experienced this summer.
⚠️ Potential Long-Lasting Heat Next Week
The high-pressure ridge is expected to remain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through much of next week. It could even stick around through Labor Day weekend. Not the best news for those who love autumn. Plenty of time left for the cooler weather to arrive.
This area of high pressure could lead to one of the longest heat waves of the summer.
- Tuesday-Friday (of next week): Highs could reach 94° or 98. Locally higher.
- Some locations could approach or even reach 100°.
- Heat index values could exceed 100°, especially Wednesday through Friday of next week.
- Overnight temperatures may also stay unusually warm, with some nights remaining in the 70s.
- The combination of hot days and warm nights could create increasing heat impacts. A heat advisory may be necessary.
The good news is that humidity should be lower than during previous heat waves this summer. Dew points are expected to stay mostly in the upper 60s to around 70°, rather than the upper 70s and lower 80s we’ve experienced at times this summer.
It will be hot, but not oppressive. This type of heat can sneak up on your body. Since it isn’t as muggy outside.
🚨 Bottom Line
Decent weather today through Saturday.
The heat returns Sunday and could become intense next week, with several days potentially reaching the mid-to-upper 90s and possibly 100°. 🔥
The biggest concern next week may be the long duration of the heat, especially because nighttime temperatures could remain very warm.
Double-click the image to enlarge it.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 26th through September 1st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NONE
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Some locations may flirt with 90 this week. Mostly eighties through Thursday. Highs may reach the lower 90s by the weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely by Sunday into much of next week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Possible by Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Perhaps beyond.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Wednesday
Precipitation is not anticipated.
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Wednesday night
Precipitation is not anticipated.
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Thursday
Precipitation is not anticipated.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
NAM 3K Model
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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