August 27, 2024: The heat is on! Watching a weekend cold front. Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A small chance of lightning Tuesday night into Wednesday night over our northern counties.

A chance of lightning Thursday night into Saturday. Highest chances will likely be Friday and Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. There is a low level risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday over our northern counties. See graphics farther down in the weather blog.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Temperatures will approach or reach 100 degrees, at some recording stations, Tuesday through Thursday.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will rise above 100 Monday through Thursday of this week.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? LOW RISK. There is a low risk of a few locations reaching 110 degrees Tuesday through Thursday (heat index).

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Hot and largely dry conditions will continue through Thursday. While small rain chances are possible in northern portions of the region tonight into Wednesday, the best chance for a wetting rain holds off until Friday and Saturday. Mixing depth increases each day, ranging upwards of 6000 feet today to over 10000 feet in many areas by Thursday. This leads to smoke dispersion improving each day. Minimum RH values may dip below 30 percent for some areas Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

** Monitor updates concerning Wednesday’s shower and thunderstorm chances. There is quite a bit of disagreement on how far south to bring those chances. Chances could end up a bit higher over the northern half of the region. **

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms over mainly northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 8 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A slight chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms over portions of southeast Missouri, portions of southern Illinois and portions of northwest Kentucky. There is some disagreement on how far south to bring these thunderstorm chances. I will keep an eye on it. A few storms could be intense. If we have thicker clouds, then shave a few degrees off the high temperature.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms over northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~2 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:41 AM
Moonset: 5:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 92° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 92° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 6:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:49 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot weather this week. Heat wave. Use care.
2. A chance of a thunderstorm Tuesday night/Wednesday/Wednesday night over mainly the northern half of the region. There is some disagreement on how far south to bring the thunderstorms.
3. Drought conditions will worsen this week.
4. Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees today through Thursday.
5. Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Saturday.
6. Seasonal temperatures return Saturday through Tuesday.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Well, the hot weather has certainly returned. Some reporting stations touched 100 degrees yesterday afternoon. Heat index values popped above 100 degrees, as well.

Here were the 4 pm temperatures. This heat wave extends from Mexico to Canada!

Double click on the image to enlarge it.

Cold ice-tea time!

It certainly felt hot. Especially after our recent “cooler” weather. Summer certainly isn’t over! I guess we knew that.

The hot temperatures will continue today through Friday. More and more reporting stations will approach the 100 degree mark today, tomorrow, and Thursday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be common. I can’t rule out some higher heat index values Thursday. That is because dew points will be on the rise. Dew point is what controls how hot it feels outside.

Please use care in the heat.

Coaches will want to postpone practice until the morning hours or late evening hours. It will be dangerous to hold practice right after school into the early evening hours.

A weak disturbance will brush our region Tuesday night/Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the northern half of the region. Models do not agree on just how far south to bring the thunderstorm chances.

Here is what the Hrrr model shows. The models are struggling with coverage and placement of storms.

Certainly, odds are higher over our far northern counties vs southern. But, questions remain on just how far south to bring the storms.

This is the Wednesday afternoon Hrrr model future-cast radar. Models also show a few storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Keep that in mind.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region in a level one severe weather risk Wednesday. They brought it fairly far south. The higher chances of thunderstorms may end up a bit farther north, but I will certainly need to keep a close eye on it.

Here is the official SPC outlook. This could shift around between now and tomorrow. This is tomorrow’s outlook.

The good news is that a cold front will push into the region Friday and Saturday. Two fronts, as a matter of fact.

The first front will bump into the hot moist air and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chances will begin late Thursday night and continue into Friday evening.

A second cold front will push into the area Saturday and Sunday. This will trigger some additional widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.

Unfortunately, not everyone will experience beneficial rain. Rain totals will range from nothing to 0.30″. Thunderstorms could produce much higher totals. The strongest of storms could produce more than an inch of rain.

Here is the latest official NOAA rainfall outlook for the coming days.

This is not a drought breaking rain. Sure, a few locations could pick up a decent rain if a thunderstorm moves overhead, but most areas will receive less than a quarter of an inch.

Speaking of drought. Check out this soil moisture map. Dry dry dry.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Temperatures will lower into the 80s for highs Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Perhaps middle/upper 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Humidity levels will lower by early next week. This will at least make it feel somewhat nicer outside

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.