August 26, 2024: Hot weather this week. A weekend cold front.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A small chance of lightning Wednesday/Wednesday night over our northern counties.

A chance of lightning Thursday night into Saturday. Highest chances will likely be Friday and Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor Thursday night into Friday night.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Temperatures will approach or reach 100 degrees, at some recording stations, Tuesday through Thursday.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will rise above 100 Monday through Thursday of this week.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? LOW RISK. There is a low risk of a few locations reaching 110 degrees Tuesday through Thursday (heat index).

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 5. Medium risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Hot and dry conditions will remain in the forecast for much of this week. Daily minimum RH values will fall to 25-35% in most locations through Thursday. Mixing will be robust during this time, with mixing heights generally reaching 5000-7000 ft. However, rather modest S to SW transport winds will result in poor to fair conditions for smoke dispersal.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 94° to 98°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 94° to 98°
Far western Kentucky ~ 94° to 98°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 94° to 98°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:50 PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. a few clouds over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky during the afternoon. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over those areas during the PM hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~2 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:41 AM
Moonset: 5:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot weather this week.
2. A small chance of a thunderstorm Wednesday over our northern and northeastern counties.
3. Drought conditions will worsen this week.
4. Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees today through Thursday.
5. Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Saturday.
6. Sseasonal temperatures by Saturday through Monday (80s).

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Well, last week delivered amazing weather to the region. An early taste of autumn. Some locations even dipped into the 40s for overnight lows.

It was dry, of course. Many areas need rain. Some of you have told me that you have not received rain over the past three weeks. Dry dry dry.

The dry ground will make this week hotter. Dry ground heats faster.

Temperatures will rise into the 90s today through Friday. Peak temperatures will be Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Mid to upper 90s will be common. A few reporting stations will likely hit 100 degrees! Perhaps some of the hottest temperatures of the summer (actual air temperatures).

The EC model shows those temperatures.

You can see how broad this heat wave will be on these graphics.

Monday high temperatures.

Tuesday high temperatures.

Wednesday high temperatures

Thursday high temperatures

Friday high temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Not the best weather for outdoor activities or sports practice. Use care.

Heat index values will not be the highest of the summer. Remember, we had some weeks with 110 to 120+ degree heat index values. That was because dew points were in the 80s.

Heat index values this week will range from 100 to 106 degrees. Isolated higher.

Dew points will mostly be in the 60s this week. Perhaps some low 70 degree dew points. That equals heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees.

The National Weather Service has stated that a heat advisory might be necessary. Either way, it will be hot. Use care, as always.

Don’t forget your outdoor pets. Change their water bowls with fresh water. It will be hot for them, as well.

A disturbance will approach the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will likely pop some thunderstorms over central and northern Illinois and central and northern Indiana. Missouri, as well.

The NAM model shows that nicely. Time-stamp upper left.

A dying line of thunderstorms could approach our northern counties Wednesday afternoon and evening. I have low-end precipitation chances during this time-frame. I suspect most areas will remain dry. I will monitor northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

Otherwise, drought conditions will worsen this week.

A cold front will slowly make its way into the region Thursday night and Friday. This will bump into the warm and moist air. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Another front will move through the region Saturday and Sunday. A few more showers and thunderstorms will pop along that front.

The going forecast is for 0.00″ to 0.25″ of rainfall. Some areas may receive little or no measurable rain. Not great news for crops.

Thunderstorms can also produce heavier totals.

Cooler and less humid air will arrive Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. Temperatures will drop back into the 80s.

Here is the latest long range temperature outlook for next weekend into the following week. The blue color represents higher chances of below average temperatures.

As far as rainfall totals go, it does not look like we will receive drought busting rains.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast for the next seven days. Not much.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.