August 26, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance today through next Wednesday. I will monitor next Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds. We will need to monitor the possible tropical storm/hurricane moving towards the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week. If it moves into our region then severe weather would be possible.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Storms this time of the year can produce heavy rain.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees through at least Friday. Saturday heat index values will likely be around 100 degrees, as well.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 26th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 10:01 PM
Moonset: 10:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

August 27th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 11:08 PM
Moonset: 11:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

August 28th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 10:56 PM
Moonset: 12:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

August 29th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 11:28 PM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

August 30th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 7. Very high
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

August 30th 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through August 30th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Monitor updates concerning the eventual track of the tropical storm/hurricane moving towards the Gulf of Mexico next week. If it moves into our region then severe weather would be possible.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Heat!
2. Watching a weak cold front Friday into next week.
3. Watching the tropics.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A few weather stories to follow.

Once again today will be hot and muggy. Friday and Saturday won’t be much better (maybe a few degrees cooler).

Highs today will be in the middle 90s. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the lower 90s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees will again be the general rule today. Friday and Saturday heat index values will range from 100 to 106 degrees.

NAM model shows this well. Heat index values.

Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

A few storms will be possible today through Sunday. Perhaps a bit higher chances Sunday vs the other days. Any thunderstorms that form could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Slow moving storms could drop an inch of rain in less than thirty minutes. Avoid flooded roadways if a heavy thunderstorm moves over your county.

Otherwise, quite a bit of sunshine over the next few days. There will be some cumulus clouds from time to time (thus the thunderstorm chances).

Rain chances increase Monday through at least Wednesday of next week. We move towards the likely category Monday into Wednesday.

I am closely watching the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development. Most models are showing a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This will need to be monitored as it moves northward.

You can see the system on satellite.

It is possible that our region will be impacted by this system. It is, however, too early for certainties.

Models are showing landfall anywhere from Texas to Alabama.

It would mean heavy rain and gusty winds locally. Perhaps tornadoes. It would all come down to the eventual track. We don’t know the track yet. Thus, monitor updates moving forward.

If you have travel plans to Texas or the Gulf of Mexico then you will want to closely monitor the track of this system. It has the potential to increase in intensity. Perhaps quite a bit. A category two or greater hurricane can’t be ruled out.

I occasionally show you ensemble model data.

The more of these lines that match, the higher the confidence in the forecast. You can see the spaghetti plots (ensembles) are showing a fairly narrow area of concern. With time, this window will narrow even more.

Monitor updates moving forward.

GEFS ensembles

EC ensembles

When we look at the primary models we can see where they track the system.

The EC model

The GFS model

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.