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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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I am giving away a MIDLAND NOAA WEATHER RADIO. The Midland 300 model.
Link to enter – click here
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:08 p.m. Last quarter
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms possible. The best coverage might end up over northern parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky. A few storms could be intense.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds with storms. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ <40%. IL ~ <50%. KY~ <50% . TN ~ <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated storms possible over our southern counties. Perhaps scattered to several storms over our northern counties. Northern counties this time would include Cape Girardeau eastward into northwest Kentucky. There northward has a better chance for some locally heavy storms.
Is severe weather expected? A couple of storms could become severe. Damaging wind is the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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August 25, 2016
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Heat index values in the upper 90’s to lower 100’s. Less than 20% for a storm.
What impact is expected? Isolated lightning risk. Higher heat index.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ <20%. IL ~ <20%. KY~ <20% . TN ~ <20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High (depending on cloud cover).
Moonrise will be at — p.m. and moonset will be at 2:12 a.m. Waning crescent
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible (mainly over our northern counties).
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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August 26, 2016
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:30 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Medium to high. This may need to be adjusted based on cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 12:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:13 p.m. Waning crescent
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds Northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 27, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. A 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Medium. We will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 1:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:05 p.m. Waning crescent
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A shower or storm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east/southeast at 2-4 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 28, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Isolated storm or shower possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Probably high.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning crescent
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered storm possible.
What impact is expected? Small chance for lightning during the evening.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph. Variable winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 29, 2016
Monday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 3:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:46 p.m. Waning crescent
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 30, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 4:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:27 p.m. Waning crescent
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Muggy
- Only small storm chances into Thursday night. Most likely we will remain dry.
- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday
Summer air has returned to the region. I am sure you can feel the difference. With dew points climbing back into the 70’s we have once again entered uncomfortable outdoor weather. Temperatures will also rise into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s into the weekend. The only exception will be when thunderstorms are present.
An outflow boundary pushing into the region from the north could produce some afternoon and evening storms on Wednesday. A few storms could produce strong winds.
An upper level disturbance moves into the region Friday into Saturday. This should pop some scattered showers and thunderstorms. I have placed probabilities at around 50%. I do expect quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity to dot radar during that time frame.
Sunday might deliver a few isolated storms. Again, mostly dry.
The other item, I am carefully monitoring, is a potential tropical system that could move into parts of Florida and the Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. If this system were to actually form and develop then it isn’t out of the question it could move into the Gulf of Mexico. Once into the Gulf of Mexico we will need to monitor the strength and track. Occasionally systems like this can bring rain and storms into our region. It is a long shot, at this point. I am carefully monitoring the guidance.
Stay tuned.
Currently the model guidance moves the system northeast towards Florida. If it were to hit Florida then it would probably be Sunday or Monday. There is no real way of knowing how strong or weak the system will be. If the system were to move over some of the higher elevation islands then it could knock the wind out of it. On other hand, if it were to miss the islands and tap into all of the warm waters then it could become a significant storm. Too early to know.
How much rain is forecast to fall through the weekend? IF we have rain the most likely time period would be Friday and Saturday.
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
I wanted to show you the whole United States. Notice how southern Florida has large rain amounts? That is because of the potential tropical system. Still many days away and much can change. If you have travel plans to Florida this weekend then monitor updated forecast.
Thursday morning low temperature map
Click images to enlarge
Thursday afternoon high temperatures
Friday morning low temperature map
Friday afternoon high temperature map
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: A few strong to severe storms can’t be completely ruled out. Mainly over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Thursday and Thursday night: Perhaps a few isolated storms over our far northern counties. Let’s say Farmington over towards Mt Vernon. Otherwise, less than 20% chance for storms, elsewhere.
Friday and Saturday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
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Added stronger wording for storms on Wednesday evening over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
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No major concerns through Thursday night. Only small storm chances.
Perhaps better storm chances on Friday and Saturday. Lightning being the main concern.
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Unlikely.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
