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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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I am giving away a MIDLAND NOAA WEATHER RADIO. The Midland 300 model.
Link to enter – click here
Sunset will be at 7:34 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 p.m. Waning Gibbous
Tuesday Night – Some clouds. Isolated chance for a shower or storm. Perhaps a little better chance west of the Mississippi River. More humid. Warmer than recent nights.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps an isolated shower or storm
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 24, 2016
Wednesday – Quite a few morning clouds possible. Then becoming partly sunny. A little bit warmer and more humid. A chance for a few morning showers or thunderstorms over our northern counties. Then, a few afternoon storms possible. A couple of storms could be intense (mainly northern counties). Heat index values in the middle to upper 90’s. A few 100-104 heat index readings possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Gusty winds near the strongest storms. Can’t rule out damaging wind gusts. Higher heat index.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated early in the day and then scattered in the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be intense.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:08 p.m. Last quarter
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms possible. The best coverage might end up over northern parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky. A few storms could be intense.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds with storms. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south/southwest at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ <40%. IL ~ <50%. KY~ <50% . TN ~ <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated storms possible over our southern counties. Perhaps scattered to several storms over our northern counties. Northern counties this time would include Cape Girardeau eastward into northwest Kentucky. There northward has a better chance for some locally heavy storms.
Is severe weather expected? A couple of storms could become severe. Damaging wind is the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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August 25, 2016
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Heat index values in the upper 90’s to lower 100’s. Less than 20% for a storm.
What impact is expected? Isolated lightning risk. Higher heat index.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ <20%. IL ~ <20%. KY~ <20% . TN ~ <20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High (depending on cloud cover).
Moonrise will be at — p.m. and moonset will be at 2:12 a.m. Waning crescent
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible (mainly over our northern counties).
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhap scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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August 26, 2016
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:30 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10. High. This may need to be adjusted based on cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 12:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:13 p.m. Waning crescent
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 27, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to medium. We will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 1:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:05 p.m. Waning crescent
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A shower or storm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 3-6 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 28, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated storm or shower possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to perhaps high.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 p.m. Waning crescent
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Only a few clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Small chance for lightning during the evening.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 29, 2016
Monday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 3:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 p.m. Waning crescent
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Monday Night – Some evening clouds. Otherwise, mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Summer air returns
- Higher dew points
- A few scattered thunderstorms
- Watching the tropics
Not a lot to cover in the weather department. Yes, temperatures and dew points are on the rise. It will feel like summer, again. We had a few nice days that attempted to spoil us. Nature doesn’t want us to get used to those temperatures. Thus, we are heading back into the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees. Dew points will rise into the 70’s over the coming days. That is air that you wear, as Jim Rasor says.
Here are the Wednesday afternoon dew point temperatures
A cold front will nudge into our northern counties on Thursday and Thursday night. This front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will remain dry from Tuesday night into Thursday morning. Outside of isolated thunderstorm chances. Thursday, however, might see at least some increase in the thunderstorm probabilities. This is especially true for the northern counties in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (see the severe weather outlook further down in this blog update).
Here is the NAM model guidance for Thursday evening. Notice the band of showers and thunderstorms to our north. That may attempt to creep into our region, as well. Northern counties have the best shot at precipitation.
Any storms that form on Thursday could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main concern. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A couple of storms could approach severe levels on Thursday and Thursday evening. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Friday into Sunday will deliver warm temperatures. Guidance is still mixed as to rain and storm coverage Friday and Saturday. I have included 40%-50% chances through Saturday. LEt’s keep an eye on it. Confidence is lower Friday and Saturday.
Check out the 24 hour temperature change map. This is from 7 am on Monday to 7 am on Tuesday. Red equals warmer air. We are definitely warming up.
How much rain is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
This chart is through Saturday morning at 7 am
Wednesday morning low temperature map
Click images to enlarge
Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday afternoon high temperature map
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night into Wednesday: No severe weather anticipated. Wednesday afternoon storms could be intense over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
Wednesday night: Evening storms could produce strong winds and lightning.
Thursday and Thursday night: A cold front approaches from the north. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out over our northern counties. That would include northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of our region in a marginal risk for severe storms. That would include the olive/dark green area. Here is the current outlook for Thursday. Light green represents a few storms, but below severe levels. Dark green is a marginal risk for a few stronger storms.
Friday and Saturday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
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Updated wording for strong storms on Wednesday afternoon.
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A few storms over the coming days. Lightning is the main concern. Strong winds, as well near the most intense storms.
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Unlikely.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
