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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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August 22, 2016
Sunrise will be at 6:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:35 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:54 a.m. Waning Gibbous .
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cooler. Some increase in clouds late tonight over southeast Missouri with a 20% for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for Illinois and Kentucky. Perhaps isolated chance late tonight over southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. The forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 23, 2016
Tuesday – Sunny during the morning. Patchy morning fog possible. An overall decent day for most of the region. Some increase in clouds possible during the afternoon over our western counties in southeast Missouri and western Tennessee. There will be a chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and perhaps western Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog possible in the morning. Small chance for lightning over southeast Missouri and perhaps western Tennessee.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-84 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming south winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps a few showers or storms over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee. Most of the area should remain dry.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:34 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 11:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night – Some increase in clouds. Slight chance for a shower or storms. Perhaps a little better chance west of the Mississippi River.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps an isolated shower or storm
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Significant differences in the guidance packages for the coming days. Many of the guidance packages do show at least some chances for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. The placement of a frontal boundary will be key to rain chances. Monitor updates.
August 24, 2016
Wednesday – Partly sunny. A little bit warmer and more humid. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Heat index upper 90’s to around 100 degrees.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways. Higher heat index.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:08 p.m. Last quarter
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Wednesday Night – Quite a few clouds. Small chance for a shower or storm.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but check radars.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 25, 2016
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Low to perhaps moderate (depending on cloud cover).
Moonrise will be at — p.m. and moonset will be at 2:12 a.m. Waning crescent
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments might be required.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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August 26, 2016
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm. Humid. A chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:30 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Low to medium. This may need to be adjusted based on cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 12:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:13 p.m. Waning crescent
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated shower or storm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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August 27, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Low to medium. We will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 1:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:05 p.m. Waning crescent
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated shower or storm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 3-6 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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August 28, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Isolated storm or shower possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 p.m. Waning crescent
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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August 29, 2016
Monday – Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 3:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Unsure about cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 2:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 p.m. Waning crescent
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Tuesday should be another nice day for most of the region
- Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly west of the Mississippi River on Tuesday into Wednesday
- We will be monitoring for a few isolated or scattered storms area-wide from the middle of the week into the weekend
- At this time, no widespread rain event is showing up in the cards
- Warming trend and an uptick in dew points (becoming more humid)
The main concern over the coming days will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. The probability of rain does not look all that great. I suspect areas west of the Mississippi River might see a few isolated showers or storms as early as Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most of the region will remain dry.
There are a couple of guidance packages that attempt to push a few showers into southwest Illinois and far western Kentucky, as well. The better chances, however, should stay west of the Mississippi River.
Here is what the NAM and NAM WRF models are showing for showers and storms on Tuesday. This first map is the WRF guidance. You can see a few storms well to the west.
This first map is a higher resolution model than the second map.
This is the lower resolution NAM guidance. You can see it places precipitation a little bit further east. We shall see. I think the further west you travel the better your odds for a few showers and storms. That means Poplar Bluff would have a better chance than say Cape Girardeau, Missouri.
Temperatures will slowly rise over the coming days. We will push into the middle and upper 80’s on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
A weak frontal boundary will push into the region around Thursday and Thursday night. This could spark a few more showers and storms. Much of the area might remain dry over the coming days. This does not look to be the same type of event as we have grown used to over the past few months. This is more of a typical late summer air-mass. A few popup storms from time to time.
As the front moves in from the north we could see a few more showers and storms over our northern counties. Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois would stand a better chance than areas further south. Part of this, however, will depend on how far south the frontal boundary pushes. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The weekend should deliver much of the same. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky conditions. Warm. A couple of showers and storms can’t be ruled out.
We could use a dry or semi-dry spell.
I will keep an eye on the frontal boundary and any upper level disturbances that might interfere with the forecast numbers. I am also carefully monitoring the tropics. Long range guidance attempts to bring activity into the Gulf of Mexico. Little or no confidence of that happening. Too far out.
Enjoy the week!
How much rain is forecast Monday into Wednesday?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. The overall coverage is anticipated to be isolated to perhaps scattered. Perhaps better chances to our west and north. These rainfall maps reflect that idea. You can see the WPC/NOAA believes portions of our region with stay completely dry through the weekend. That might happen, but I will include at least some chance for a few storms in the region.
Click image for a larger view.
This next map is for through Monday morning at 7 am. You can see the heavier totals should be centered to our north and west.
Tuesday morning low temperature map
Click images to enlarge
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
Wednesday morning low temperature map
Wednesday afternoon high temperature map
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night into Tuesday: No severe weather anticipated. Isolated storms possible over southeast Missouri and perhaps western Tennessee on Tuesday. Not severe.
Tuesday night: No severe weather anticipated. Isolated storms possible over southeast Missouri and perhaps western Tennessee.
Wednesday into Friday: I can’t rule out some isolated or scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather is currently not anticipated. Monitor updated forecasts.
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Trying to nail down the probability numbers for rain this week. Expect at least some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, I can’t find a widespread event over the coming days. Better chances to our west and north over the coming days. We will be on the fringe of precipitation.
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Rivers in some of our counties are flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
