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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Updated today’s forecast. Lowered the probabilities a little bit for rainfall. Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains intact.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds. A 30%-40% chance for showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest and then west late in the day as the cold front passes through the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a backup plan. We could have showers or storms in the area.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Sunday night – A 20% chance for some lingering showers. Decreasing clouds late.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% mostly early
What impact is expected? No significant impacts expected
Monday – Decreasing clouds. Beautiful temperatures for late August. Stunning.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with beautiful temperatures for August. Amazing weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Amazing weather for late August
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Continued nice weather. Perhaps a little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold front arrives on Sunday
2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front
3. Cooler and drier air sweeps back into the region Sunday night and Monday
4. Very nice week ahead of us
Showers and thunderstorms were a bit more widespread today than expected. Some of the storms have been heavy. No severe weather has been reported. But, locally heavy rain and frequent lightning with some of the cells. Gusty winds, as well.
Showers and storms will continue into Saturday evening. Then perhaps more late tonight.
The main story for Sunday will be the incoming cold front. This front will help trigger some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.Officially the Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a marginal risk for severe weather. But, I believe the risk is very small.
The front will move through the region by Sunday night. Cooler and drier air will move back into the region. This is going to add a lot more below normal temperature days to our current ongoing number. What an amazing month this has been. Many many days below normal in the temperature department. But, that was the forecast!
Monday through Friday is currently forecast to be dry. Expect numerous days with temperatures in the 70’s to lower 80’s. Overnight lows could dip into the 50’s on several nights. Might be able to keep those windows open. Nice for those air condition bills.
September is forecast to deliver more above normal temperature days vs below normal days. We will see how it goes. We will need to watch the tropics in September. Occasionally we experience the remnants of a tropical system. If that were to happen then widespread rain would be the result. Otherwise, September could end up at or below normal in the precipitation department.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers and storms this evening (Saturday evening) could produce 0.25″-0.50″ with locally heavier totals likely.
We will have some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Right now it appears that not everyone will pick up measurable rainfall.
For those who do pick up rainfall then 0.25″-0.50″ will be possible. I suppose if a couple of storms train over the same areas then locally heavier amounts could occur. Right now it appears that this will not be a large rainfall event. Especially compared with recent storm systems.
Most of next week is currently forecast to be dry (Monday through Friday)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ONE for Saturday night and ONE/TWO for Sunday.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms around the area. Perhaps an isolated strong storms. Low risk of severe storms.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase a bit on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Right now the severe weather risk appears minimal. Of course you can always have some gusty winds and lightning (with any storms in August). But, overall the severe weather risk appears small. I will keep an eye on it.
Most of next week should remain dry (Monday-Friday)
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
