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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Watching an area moving northward out of western Tennessee. This is a fairly organized area of precipitation. Will increase chances a little bit for this afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% at any given spot
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Especially late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds becoming more southerly at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible if a thunderstorm develops.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds. A 40% chance for showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest and then west late in the day as the cold front passes through the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a backup plan. We could have storms in the area.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Sunday night – A 30% chance for some lingering showers. Decreasing clouds late.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% mostly early
What impact is expected? No significant impacts expected
Monday – Decreasing clouds. Beautiful temperatures for late August. Stunning.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with beautiful temperatures for August. Amazing weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Amazing weather for late August
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A few more clouds over the coming days
2. At least a few scattered showers and storms possible on Saturday
3. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
4. Cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday and Sunday night
A warm front will move northward through our region on Friday night and Saturday. There is not a lot of lift or moisture available for this warm front to work with. Thus, precipitation chances will remain low through Saturday night. Yes, a few scattered showers and storms will likely appear on radar over the next 24 hours. But, many areas will remain dry. Precipitation chances will range from 20%-30% through Saturday evening.
Nice temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. A bit more humid ahead of our next cold front.
Our next cold front arrives on Sunday and Sunday night. As this front pumps into a bit more humid air we can expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Sunday. Right now it appears that some places may miss out on precipitation. Precipitation chances will rise into the 40%-60% range on Sunday.
The risk for severe weather on Sunday appears minimal. I will keep an eye on trends. Monitor updates, as always. The Storm Prediction Center has marked our region for a small risk of severe storms on Sunday. Again, I will keep an eye on it and update accordingly.
The big news will be that cooler air will once again return to the region by Sunday night and Monday. This has been an incredible August when you look at the raw numbers. The vast majority of days have delivered below normal temperatures. I have not heard anyone complain about this weather. I did hear quite a few people complain in July because of the high humidity levels (high heat index values).
Monday through Friday, at this time, should be dry. Temperatures will mostly be in the 70’s and lower 80’s. We could start to see temperatures rise a bit as we move towards the end of the week. Still some time to monitor that time frame.
Let’s look ahead to those high temperatures on Monday through Wednesday. Might even be a bit cooler than this is showing. We will see how it goes.
Tuesday (below)
Wednesday
September is forecast to deliver more above normal temperature days vs below normal days. We will see how it goes. We will need to watch the tropics in September. Occasionally we experience the remnants of a tropical system. If that were to happen then widespread rain would be the result. Otherwise, September could end up at or below normal in the precipitation department.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
For the most part the next 8 days look to be more dry than wet.
We have small precipitation chances on Friday night and Saturday. Someone might pick up 0.10″-0.25″ If a thunderstorm were to track across any particular location then you might pick up a bit more than that.
A little better chance on Sunday as yet another strong cold front passes through the region. Someone might pick up 0.25″-0.50″. Some areas may very well not pick up any precipitation on Friday night through Sunday.
Monday through Friday of next week appear (at this time) mostly dry.
Here are the rainfall numbers for Friday night through Sunday night. Broad-brushed. The biggest rain chances will be on Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Friday. One by Friday night/Saturday. I will need to monitor Sunday, but appears to be a ONE/TWO.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Saturday. Widely scattered.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms around the area. Perhaps an isolated strong storms. Low risk of severe storms.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No significant worries on Friday night through Saturday night. I can’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but most areas should remain dry.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase a bit on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Right now the severe weather risk appears minimal. Of course you can always have some gusty winds and lightning (with any storms in August). But, overall the severe weather risk appears small. I will keep an eye on it.
Most of next week should remain dry (Monday-Friday)
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
