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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Perhaps some increase in clouds late tonight. Cooler. Some patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Nice. Pleasant weather for late August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Friday night – Mostly clear sky conditions early and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm after 3 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible with thunderstorms. Brief downpours.
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible if a thunderstorm develops.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds. A 40% chance for showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest and then west late in the day as the cold front passes through the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a backup plan. We could have storms in the area.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Sunday night – A 40% chance for some lingering showers. Decreasing clouds late.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% mostly early
What impact is expected? No significant impacts expected
Monday – Decreasing clouds. Beautiful temperatures for late August. Stunning.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with beautiful temperatures for August. Amazing weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday’s School Bus Stop Forecast
Another nice school day forecast. Autumn’ish
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Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A beautiful Friday is on tap for the region
2. Another front approaches Friday night and again on Sunday
3. Next Monday through Friday (at least right now) look to bring beautiful weather to the region.
Folks, we are being spoiled. This is not a normal August by any stretch of the imagination. When I forecasted below normal temperatures for this month…who knew it would be so amazing. You just don’t experience highs in the 70’s in August very often. Not repeatedly, especially.
Half of July was at or below normal in the temperature department (unfortunately all the rain made for high dew points and that made for higher heat index values). So far in August, 14 out of 20 days have brought below normal temperatures. That is a decent summer. Have we had some hot and humid weather? Sure, we have. It is summer in the Ohio Valley. BUT, it could be much much worse. This has been a decent summer, overall. Too wet. I will give you that!
I know that July had some very high heat index values. But, most stations barely reached 95 on the thermometer. That is fairly impressive for our region. I think July would have been graded differently had we not experienced the high heat index values.
Let’s look at August so far. Anything in blue is at or below normal in the temperature department. Add in Thursday, as well.
Not only does your Friday look great, but much of next week looks to be stunning. Multiple days with highs only in the 70’s and perhaps lower 80’s. Low humidity levels. If the data is correct then most of next week will be nice.
I suspect this is going to be the facial expression on hot weather lover’s faces over the coming 8 days.
Let’s look at the temperature anomalies for the coming 6 days.
These images are from Weatherbell.com
What these maps will show you is how much above or below normal temperatures are expected to be (a bit broad-brushed) over the coming 7 days. The scale is on the left. Blue and green represent below normal temperatures. White represents mostly normal temperatures. Yellow and orange/red represent above normal temperatures.
You can see we are squarely in the below normal anomalies.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 65 degrees.
This first map is for Friday.
This next map is for Saturday
Now, look what happens on Sunday. A cold front approaches the region. Typically we warm up a bit ahead of a cold front. Why is that? Well, normally that means warmer air is moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That warmer air is one reason we normally experience showers or thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
Anyway, this is the Sunday map. We see a bump in temperatures.
The cold front pushes to our east by Sunday night. And guess what happens then? Back to below normal temperatures. The cool shot next week might be the strongest yet.
Here are the Monday morning temperature anomalies
Here are the Tuesday morning temperature anomalies
Here are the Wednesday morning temperature anomalies.
Folks, this is just one amazing run of weather we are having. Summer is definitely slipping away, But, remember…I am forecasting above normal temperatures in September. We will see how that goes. I guess if this pattern keeps up then that might be in jeopardy. But, I think we see a flip.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
For the most part the next 8 days look to be more dry than wet.
We have small precipitation chances on Friday night and Saturday. Someone might pick up 0.10″-0.25″
A little better chance on Sunday as yet another strong cold front passes through the region. Someone might pick up 0.25″-0.50″. Some areas may very well not pick up any precipitation on Friday night through Sunday.
Monday through Friday of next week appear (at this time) mostly dry.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Thursday and Friday. One by Friday night/Saturday. I will need to monitor Sunday, but appears to be a ONE.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Maybe some widely scattered thunderstorms late Friday night.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Saturday. Widely scattered.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms around the area. Scattered.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No serious issues through Friday. Maybe a few scattered storms Friday night after 3 am and on Saturday. Very scattered in nature. A little better chance on Sunday as yet another strong cold front pushes through the region.
Next week looks down right incredible. Highs in the 70’s most of the week. Dry. Early autumn weather.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
