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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday – Perhaps some morning fog. Partly cloudy. Cooler and not as humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy and not as humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Friday night – Mostly clear sky conditions early and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm after 3 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible with thunderstorms. Brief downpours.
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible if a thunderstorm develops.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest and then west late in the day as the cold front passes through the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a backup plan. We could have storms in the area.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Wednesday’s School Bus Stop Forecast
A nice school day forecast. Autumn’ish
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some shower/storm chances on Wednesday night
2. Dry weather for Thursday and Friday
3. Some rain chances return by Friday night/Saturday and especially on Sunday
We are going to have to deal with some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday evening and night. This is all in advance, along, and behind a cold front that is moving through the region.
Here is the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning weather maps.
First the Wednesday evening map. You can see the cold front marked by the long blue line with triangles in front of it. The area of low pressure is located over northern Wisconsin and is tracking northeast.
Then Thursday morning (below)
You can see high pressure building into the region. That blue H is the high pressure.
The end result of this cold front will be wonderful temperatures for August.
High temperatures will only reach into the 70’s on Thursday. That will be after morning lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. You just can’t beat this weather. The majority of August has delivered below normal temperatures. But, that is no surprise to my regular readers. That was the monthly forecast. Still some time to go. Expect quite a few more below normal temperature days to be tacked onto the record sheet before all is said and done.
Check out the dew point map. This is from Wednesday afternoon. The orange and yellow colors represent a lot of moisture in the air. High dew points ahead of the cold front. Look behind that area. See the blue? That is drier air. That is the air for Thursday into Friday. Image is from weatherbell.com
Thursday and Friday will deliver nice weather. Lower dew points and lower temperatures.
Let’s look at Thursday’s dew point map. MUCH better numbers. Dew points below 60 degrees feel great.
Cold front sweeps through and cleans out the atmosphere. Pushing the higher dew points well off to our east.
See the little nudge of higher dew points out in western Texas? The yellow? That is the beginning of our next system for the weekend.
Looking ahead to the weekend…
In the “all good things must come to an end” segment of the blog 🙂 Another front arrives on Friday night/Saturday morning and on Sunday. The Friday night and Saturday morning front will be a warm front.
Typically warm fronts move into our region from the south. They move northward. This is usually in response to an area of low pressure to our west. The low rotates counter-clockwise. Thus, the warm front moves northward.
Let me show you a diagram. The red L is the area of low pressure. See the arrows? Those represent the wind direction. If a warm front is to our south then the warmer southerly winds are going to push that front northward. Typically we experience some showers and thunderstorms along and north of a warm front.
Right now there is some disagreement on how great the shower and thunderstorm coverage will be on Friday night and Saturday. Models are painting at least a chance for precipitation over our region as the warm front passes through. It should not be widespread rain or storms. But, keep this in mind. We may have to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Fingers crossed that the rest of Saturday will be dry. I will have to keep an eye as to how fast the front passes through our region.
A cold front will then advance into the region late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. That front will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. I can’t rule out some locally heavy downpours. Typical for August.
Let’s look at the dew point map. This image is from weatherbell.com You can see the yellow and orange colors are back! Higher moisture ahead of the next front. Warm air (moist air) pulling northward ahead of the front.
What is not typical is the cold front. Matter of fact…two strong cold fronts in less than a week in August is rather impressive.
The air behind the front will cool down on Sunday night into Tuesday. Nice weather expected Monday and Tuesday. Perhaps lasting into Wednesday and Thursday, as well.
Here are the Monday morning dew points. What happened to all the yellow and orange? Swept off the south and east as the cold front moves through. See how that works. Warm and moist air ahead of cold fronts and cool and dry air behind the cold front.
August is slipping away and so are the chances for heat.
Right now, September is forecast to bring above normal temperatures. We shall see how that forecast goes.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are still possible on Wednesday night. Rainfall totals of 0.30″-0.60″ with potential for higher amounts in the heavier thunderstorms.
I am not expecting storms on Thursday or Friday.
Another round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible late Friday night and Saturday morning. Then again on Sunday. This will be in response to a warm front pushing through the region and then a cold front. Once again we could see locally heavy rain from thunderstorms.
Generally from Friday night through Sunday night we should pick up another 0.25″-0.50″. Perhaps some locally heavier totals possible. I will need to monitor the rainfall forecast during the above mentioned time frame. I might need to increase it a bit.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Thursday and Friday. One by Friday night/Saturday. I will need to monitor Sunday.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Maybe some thunderstorms by Friday night.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Saturday
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms around the area
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I have no serious concerns through Friday. Can’t rule out some patchy fog, I suppose. But, no real weather threats.
Thunderstorm chances will increase a bit ahead of a warm front on Friday night and perhaps part of Saturday. Then another strong cold front arrives around Sunday.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
