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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 2, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance will be during the evening hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Radars
Your local city view interactive radars
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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August 3, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds in thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A few evening storms possible. A band of late night showers and thunderstorms passing through the region from northwest to southeast. Some areas will likely receive no rainfall.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts likely late. Winds becoming southwest and then eventually west/northwest behind the cold front (late Thursday night).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds in thunderstorms
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, in case there are some rain showers/storms in the region. The greatest chance for showers and storms will arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning.
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August 4, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some morning clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence on timing of frontal passage. If the front is slower, then rain chances linger until mid-morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny as the day wears on. Dew points falling to comfortable levels as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with perhaps some higher gusts.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning wet roadways and lightning (before 11 am)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain will end from west to east. A band of showers and storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates in case the front is slower than anticipated.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cooler. Less humid. Pleasant night. Great camping weather.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: North/northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph early becoming north and northwest at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 5, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny before 1 pm. Some increase in clouds possible late. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 76 to 84 TN ~ 76 to 84
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph. Winds becoming east/northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool. Dry most of the night. A chance for a few showers and storms arriving after midnight. That would mainly be over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming east and southeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Small risk for wet roadways and lightning over southeast Missouri after 12 am.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: For most of the area, none. After midnight isolated to scattered developing over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A bit warmer. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk for strong winds with some storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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August 7, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 9, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for showers late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible.
Thursday and Friday: Thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front. A few of the storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain and lighting will be the main concern. Small risk for damaging winds.
Saturday into Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible Sunday afternoon and night. Again on Monday. A bit early to know if strong storms will be a concern. Monitor updates.
August 2, 2017
Some of your received heavy rain on Tuesday. Northern portions of southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois received over an inch of rain from slow moving thunderstorms. Portions of northwest Kentucky also picked up some showers. The vast majority of the area received no measurable rainfall.
Here is the NWS radar rainfall estimates from Tuesday.
Click to enlarge
Scale is on the right side of the image
The main weather story for the coming days will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
We will have one opportunity for thunderstorms today (mainly this afternoon and evening) and another chance Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
The bulk of the precipitation should have ended before 10 am on Friday. If the front were to slow, by just a few hours, then rain chances would continue over our southern and southeastern counties into Friday morning. That would mainly include the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Once again some areas will receive no rain at all. Typical summer system. Some areas will receive over an inch of rain.
Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar. The NAM brings the cold front into the region a bit slower than other guidance. It brings the band of showers and thunderstorms through far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee on Friday morning.
Other guidance is faster and clears all the rain from the area before sunrise on Friday.
Click to enlarge
1 AM Friday
4 AM Friday
7 AM Friday
10 AM Friday
There is a small risk for damaging winds on Thursday afternoon and night. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Thursday/Thursday night. Dark green would be a marginal/level one out of five risk.
Temperatures today into Thursday will be warm, but nothing unusual. Normal high temperatures are in the upper 80’s. Highs today and Thursday will range from 84 to 88 with pockets of slightly higher readings.
Dew points will be high until frontal passage. That means that it will feel muggy outside.
Lower dew points and lower temperatures arrive behind the cold front on Friday into Saturday night. It will feel nicer on both days.
The drier/less humid air will need to filter into the region on Friday morning and afternoon. It might start out humid in some counties, but as the day progresses we will see less humid air arriving (lower dew points).
Dew points will pool higher ahead of the front Thursday night. Check out the second image. Low dew points on Saturday! Nicer air.
Saturday dew points
High temperatures for Thursday
Click to enlarge
Friday
Saturday
Saturday morning lows might dip into the 50’s. The GFS might be too cool, but you get the general idea
A weak system arrives on Sunday and Sunday night with additional thunderstorm chances. Locally heavy rain possible, but some will again remain dry.
Let’s look at three model rainfall predictions from now through Friday morning
The EC model continues to show little rain from now through Friday morning. Keep in mind, the models don’t handle locally heavy thunderstorms all that great.
With that said, EC shows the least amount of rain. That is the third model down.
None of the models show much. Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ seem the best bet. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce over an inch of rain.
Click images to enlarge
GFS model guidance
NAM model guidance
EC model guidance
Canadian model guidance
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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