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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
Severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App. Have a few ways of receiving severe weather warnings.
At 5 AM, showers and thunderstorms were moving through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. See the live radar links below.
Here is what it looked like on radar.
These storms were not severe (as of this writing). They were producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.
There is a small chance of isolated higher winds with these morning storms.
The setup for severe weather this morning is marginal, at best.
The threat does increase later today and tonight, however.
After the morning storms move east, storm activity should decrease temporarily. However, another round of storms could develop this evening and continue into tonight.
The atmosphere will be more favorable for severe weather this evening. Wind shear will be stronger, and there could be a small tornado threat, especially near the low-pressure system and boundary. The main severe weather threat will likely be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Many questions remain about where the afternoon and overnight storms will develop. For now, it appears the atmosphere will have enough time to become unstable after the morning clouds and precipitation.
If the atmosphere can recover, the risk of severe weather will continue into the overnight hours. Additional storms would form during the mid- and late-afternoon. They would then continue into the first half of the night.
Heavy rainfall is also a concern, especially if storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
Storm totals of around 1 to 1.5 inches are currently expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, but localized flooding could occur where storms repeatedly track over the same locations.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook.
We are in a level one and two risk of severe weather.
Some areas could be upgraded to a level three severe risk. Either way, a few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could produce damaging wind gusts, quarter-sized hail, heavy rain, and lightning. There is also a low risk of a tornado.
Monitor updates on your Beau Dodson Weather App.
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🌤️ Looking Ahead
Rain and storm chances will continue into Thursday as the main weather system slowly moves east.
Rain chances drop off quickly on Thursday night and Friday.
Cooler and drier air will gradually move in from the northwest on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
I am monitoring a system next Monday or Tuesday. For now, I kept that time-period dry.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 19th through August 25th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: Yes, severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some of the thunderstorms today and tonight could be severe.
Damaging wind will be the primary concern. Heavy rain and lightning, as well. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Monitor updates.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s latest outlook.
The risk will peak later this afternoon and tonight. The threat this morning is minimal.
They will update this graphic several times today. I can’t rule out portions of this being upgraded to a level three risk.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: POSSIBLE. I will monitor this afternoon and tonight. There is a low-level risk of a tornado later today and tonight. Damaging wind will be the primary concern.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into tomorrow. I will monitor next Monday and Tuesday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOCALIZED ISSUES. Some of the rain could be heavy today and tonight. This could cause localized drainage issues. Some ditches and roadways could flood. Widespread issues are not anticipated.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. A chance today. Mainly in areas outside of clouds and storms.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. A chance today (mainly over the Bootheel into northwest Tennessee).
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Most of this will occur today and tonight.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Thursday
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Thursday night
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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