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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
.This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
Videos will resume this coming Saturday. I am on summer vacation.
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August 18, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms developing out of northeast Arkansas and moving northeast late tonight.
What impact is expected? Maybe lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% early and 50% late tonight (mainly far southeast Missouri/far southern Illinois/western Kentucky/western Tennessee)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 19, 2016
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. One round in the morning (mostly southern counties ~ Bootheel/far southern IL/western KY/TN). Another chance during the afternoon. Patchy morning fog possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms could produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Locally heavy downpour and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Saturday – Quite a few clouds. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Moving in from the west and northwest.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to at times numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Low. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning (mainly early in the night).
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest becoming northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% before 10 pm and 30% after 10 pm. Ending from west to east.
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous as a cold front moves through the region.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds with a couple of the thunderstorms
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? have a plan B
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August 21, 2016
Sunday – Decreasing clouds. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before 8 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps low visibility in some fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 21, 2016
Monday – Sunny. Patchy morning fog possible. Cooler. Less humid.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog possible in the morning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:37 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
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.The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Weekend cold front will bring more storms
- Much cooler next week
- Monitoring a heavy rain event middle and end of next week.
Remember, I am on vacation from August 10th through August 20th. Everything will be updated daily. I might not be around as much to answer questions on the Facebook page.
I want to show you some rainfall charts. This is since Friday evening when this event started to unfold in our region. These are incredible rains. This is on top of several very large rain events during July. The Paducah, KY NWS mentioned that our region has experienced rain the last 49 days out of 50.
Yes, I have never experienced a summer quite like this one.
This is the percent of normal rainfall from the past seven days. Parts of our region are 500% above normal. Actually more than that.
These are radar indicated rainfall totals. Click images to enlarge. Scale is on the left side of the image.
Zoomed in on Paducah and Metropolis. Some spots picked up more than EIGHT inches of rain. Most of that fell on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
I forecasted the least amount of rain for parts of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
This next image is for our eastern counties. The lightest blue represent one inch of rain. The numbers increase from there. There were a few spots that did not reach one inch.
This next graphic is for southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Sale is on the left side of the image.
This next image is for southern Illinois and parts of surrounding areas.
This next image is for southeast Missouri
This next image is for the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Here is the future-cast radar for early Friday morning. A low level jet might help kick off some storms late Thursday night into Friday morning. Future-cast radar for 7 am Friday morning. Just this models opinion on precipitation placement. The green and yellow colors represent showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front enters our region late Friday night into Saturday night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should accompany this frontal boundary. Locally heavy rain is possible. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds, as well. Monitor updates.
Let me show you a few future-cast radar maps. This is what the NAM WRF model believes precipitation will look like on Saturday
Storms are possible Saturday morning over our western counties (southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois). Storms will spread eastward through the day.
This is the 3 to 4 pm radar shot. Again, just a models opinion. Plan on some showers and storms.
This next image is for 7 pm Saturday evening.
I know several of you have plans this weekend that require dry weather. I would suggest closely monitoring updated forecasts. Plan on some precipitation.
If we are fortunate, the rain will end by Sunday morning and afternoon. The front is forecast to pass through the region on Saturday night. If the front slows down then rain chances will continue into Sunday.
Much cooler weather will arrive behind the cold front by Sunday night and Monday. Highs early next week may not get out of the 70’s. Low temperatures early next week will likely dip into the 50’s. An early taste of fallish weather? Meteorological fall beings on September 1st.
Check out the Tuesday morning lows and afternoon highs. This would be nice.
I am monitoring another front towards the middle and end of next week. Quite a bit of rain is possible along that boundary. Too early to determine if it will impact our local counties.
How much rain is forecast Wednesday night into Sunday?
This is broad-brushed. Totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement. Stronger storms can produce a quick one inch of rain.
Click image for a larger view.
The GEM model is showing this for rainfall totals. Keep in mind that models don’t handle precipitation totals all that well. This just gives you a general idea.
Temperatures over the coming days will vary greatly based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind, as well.
Friday morning low temperature map
Friday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Saturday morning low temperature map
Saturday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night into Friday: Perhaps a few scattered storms. Lightning is the main concern. Slow moving storms or training storms could produce pockets of flash flooding.
Saturday and Saturday night: A cold front will move into our region. This front could trigger showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be intense. There remains some questions about the strength of the incoming cold front. Monitor updates.
Sunday into Monday: At this time, I am semi-hopeful that storms will end by Sunday morning. This is highly dependent on the movement of a cold front.
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I adjusted wording on Sunday’s forecast.
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Rivers in some of our counties are flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
Storms over the coming days could produce lightning. Outdoor events will want to keep that in mind.
Storms could also produce pockets of flash flooding.
Some of the thunderstorms on Saturday could be intense with strong winds. Monitor updated forecasts. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms. The overall risk appears small.
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Avoid flooded roadways.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then you might want to plan on at least some thunderstorm chances.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
