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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be strong, especially over our western and northwestern counties (southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars because some storms are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small chance for an isolated severe storm. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% early increasing to 60% after 12 am
What impact is expected? A heavy downpour possible. Gusty winds and lightning.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with some morning showers and thunderstorms. Then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. A few storms could be on the heavy side.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% in the morning and then 70% during the afternoon
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Wednesday night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be on the heavy side.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest behind the cold front at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk of severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%–70% early and then 40%-60% after midnight.
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Cooler and not as humid. Perhaps some remaining morning showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% during the morning
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy and not as humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Friday night – Mostly clear sky conditions early and then becoming partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm after 3 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Lightning will be possible with thunderstorms. Brief downpours.
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Another cold front may near the region on Sunday and Monday. If so then we will see thunderstorm chances increase once again. Best chance will likely be on Sunday and Sunday evening.
Much cooler air likely early next week. We might even dip into the 50’s by Tuesday morning.
Wednesday’s School Bus Stop Forecast
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Reed Electric, located in Metropolis, Illinois offering full service electrical, heating and air conditioning. Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorm chances are the main story for the next 24 hours
2. Dry weather for Thursday and Friday
3. Yet another cold front by the weekend
The main story for Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be showers and thunderstorms. If you were with me yesterday you will remember that I said the Storm Prediction Center outlook was a bit overdone. And, today they have backed off their rhetoric and severe weather risk outline. They now have us in a marginal risk for a few storms becoming severe. And, I agree with this outlook.
Here is the new outlook. If you remember they had orange over us at one point. They have reduced that to yellow. The yellow represents a lesser threat concern. Still, a couple of storms could be quite strong. We will keep an eye on it.
I think what they were doing was overestimating how unstable we would become on Wednesday. Clouds should help keep CAPE numbers down. CAPE is basically energy available for storms.
We will have a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday night. These will approach from the west. By late tonight pretty much all of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky could see some showers and storms on radar. Smaller chances further east.
By Wednesday into Wednesday evening I am expecting a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. Some areas could pick up several storms. If that happens then locally heavy rain will be possible.
A cold front will push through the region by Wednesday night.
Once the front passes through the area you can expect a decent weather day for Thursday and Friday.
Yet another cold front will push into the region by Saturday and especially Sunday. This will bring another sharp increase in rain chances. Fairly active pattern for August. This is not typical August weather.
Below normal temperatures are expected for most of the next 7-10 days. A few days will bring above normal temperatures.
Let’s take a look at our big storm system for Wednesday and some maps for the rest of the week.
This first map from tropicaltidbits shows the area of low pressure centered over Wisconsin on Wednesday morning. See the red L? That is the area of low pressure.
A warm conveyor belt of moisture will extend from the Gulf of Mexico all the way into Canada. Impressive for August.
Moving ahead to Wednesday evening. You can see green over our region. That indicates showers and thunderstorms pushing through our local counties.
We then see an area of high pressure over our region on Thursday. The blue H represents the high pressure. High pressure typically means nice weather.
Let’s move ahead to Saturday morning. A warm front will move northward through our region. There could be some showers and thunderstorms along the warm front. Expect at least a chance for precipitation on Saturday.
Moving out to Saturday night. You can see an area of low pressure over Oklahoma and one up in Canada. A cold front will trail across the Central United States. The green represents showers and thunderstorms. This front will push eastward into our region. Expect showers and storm chances to increase on Sunday.
By noon Sunday you can see the models are painting green over our area. Again, expect showers and storms on Sunday. Right now I am thinking 50%-70% chances. Still several days out.
Finally, by Monday you can see high pressure building into our region. Expect below normal temperatures to be associated with this high. Nice August weather. Go figure!
Check out these temperatures next week. This first map is for Monday at noon. Can’t beat that in August. Look at all the 70’s.
Then on Tuesday morning. According to this model you can expect widespread 50’s! That would be quite amazing, if true.
Then by Tuesday. The lunch hour temperatures. Again a lot of 70’s and lower 80’s. Nice weather for August.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.25″-0.50″ on Tuesday night. Locally heavier amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms on Wednesday could produce 0.40″-0.80″ with local amounts above 1″.
I am watching for another rain maker over the weekend.
If you remember yesterday NOAA had a very large area of 1-2″ across our region for Tuesday night and Wednesday. I thought that was a bit overdone. I see today they have backed off the widespread nature of those totals. Here is their latest graphic for rainfall totals. Looks a bit more realistic to me.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be TWO on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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Tuesday night: A few strong storms will be possible. Very small severe weather risk.
Wednesday: There will be a minimal risk for a couple of storms becoming severe.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Maybe some thunderstorms by Friday night.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Saturday
Sunday: I will need to monitor Sunday’s severe weather potential as another strong cold front pushes through the area.
The main concern for Wednesday will be thunderstorm chances. A few storms could be on the strong side, but the severe weather concerns are minimal. Locally heavy rain will be possible and frequent lightning. A couple of storms could also produce pea to dime size hail and gusty winds.
Again, the severe weather threat appears minimal at any given location.
We dry out by Wednesday night and Thursday.
Thunderstorm chances may return by the weekend as another cold front arrives in the region.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
