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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
.This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
Videos will resume this coming Saturday. I am on summer vacation.
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August 17, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:43 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. A decent chance for at least evening showers and storms over far southeast Missouri into far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. A chance for a few storms late tonight, as well. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways..
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning. Locally heavy downpours. If storms train over the same areas then flash flooding is a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous early in the night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 18, 2016
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog possible. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Isolated late.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 19, 2016
Friday – Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms could produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Locally heavy downpour and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Some uncertainty as to when a cold front moves into the region this weekend. The timing of the front may need adjustments. That would change the daily forecast percentage numbers for rain chances. Keep that in mind.
August 20, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Moving in from the west and northwest.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous as a cold front moves through the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 21, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Becoming partly sunny.
What impact is expected? Lightning will be the main concern. Perhaps locally heavy downpours. The rain may move out by Sunday. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 8 am. 20% after 8 am. Monitor updates in case the front slows down.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and likely ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Low to perhaps moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will monitor for shower chances.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 21, 2016
Monday – Partly sunny. Patchy morning fog possible. Cooler. Less humid.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog possible in the morning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:37 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 9:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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.The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Will the rain ever end?
- Cold front this weekend. Good chance for more storms
- Possible strong storms this weekend
- Much cooler weather is on the way
Remember, I am on vacation from August 10th through August 20th. Everything will be updated daily. I might not be around as much to answer questions on the Facebook page.
More heavy rain fell on Wednesday morning. Parts of far southeast Missouri into Ballard and McCracken Counties in western Kentucky and into Massac/Pope Counties in Illinois received more than six inches of rain in less than four hours. Flash flooding occurred in many areas. Numerous roads were under water.
Parts of northwest Kentucky also experienced heavy rain. Owensboro had roads under water, as well.
Here are radar estimated 12 hour totals. I know some places had more than 7″ this morning.
Click for larger view.
This has been the strangest summer that I can remember. I have studied weather in this region since I was eight years old. There is nothing remotely normal about this weather. I just hope it isn’t the new normal. Studies have indicated heavy rain events are increasing. The statistics back this up.
We will have at least a chance for scattered storms on Thursday. Perhaps a bit more coverage on Friday.
Another strong cold front will push into the region on Saturday and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Locally heavy rain is possible. I can’t rule out severe weather. Confidence on the severe weather threat is low. Monitor updates.
There remains some discussion about when the best rain chances will blanket the area. Both Saturday and Sunday will have shower and storm chances. There is a chance that one of those days might end up more dry vs wet. Low confidence on timing for precipitation this weekend.
I know several of you have plans this weekend that require dry weather. I would suggest closely monitoring updated forecasts. I will stay on top of it.
Much cooler weather will arrive behind the cold front by Sunday night and Monday. Highs early next week may not get out of the 70’s. Low temperatures early next week will likely dip into the 50’s. An early taste of fallish weather? Meteorological fall beings on September 1st.
How much rain is forecast Wednesday night into Sunday?
This is broad-brushed. Keep in mind this includes totals will LIKELY vary GREATLY. Same as recent weeks. Some places will receive several inches of rain.
Click image for a larger view.
Temperatures over the coming days will vary greatly based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind, as well.
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Friday morning low temperature map
Friday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: A few storms are possible Wednesday night. Small risk for strong winds.
Thursday into Friday: Perhaps a few scattered storms. Lightning is the main concern. Slow moving storms or training storms could produce pockets of flash flooding.
Saturday into Sunday: A cold front will move into our region. This front could trigger showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be intense. There remains some questions about the strength of the incoming cold front. Monitor updates.
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No major changes. I have been tweaking the rain probabilities for the coming days.
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Rivers in some of our counties are flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
Storms over the coming days could produce lightning. Outdoor events will want to keep that in mind.
Storms could also produce pockets of flash flooding.
No other major concerns through Friday.
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Other than areas that are experiencing flooding, no.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
