Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 16th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

 

48-hour forecast



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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   Scattered lightning today through at least Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.  Widespread severe weather appears unlikely, but monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.  Slow moving storms could produce pockets of one to three inches of rain in less than an hour.  Avoid flooded roadways.  Similar pattern as recent weeks.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees?  Monitor.  Readings are likely to stay below 100, but monitor updates.  Increasing dew points will mean heat index values approaching 100 degrees by the middle of the week.  Some clouds and precipitation may help keep us below the 100 degree mark.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast?  No.

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August 16th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85°  /  SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  82° to 85° /  South IL 82° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85°  /  West KY  82° to 85° /  NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph becoming east/northeast
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL  64° to 68° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  2:59 PM
Moonset: 121:08 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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August 17th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous (coverage will be greater over the east/southeast portion of the region vs west/northwest)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° /  South IL  66° to 70° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° /  West KY 66° to 70° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  4:10 PM
Moonset: 121:52 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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August 18th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50%  /  NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° /  South IL  66° to 70° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° /  West KY 66° to 70° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  5:15 PM
Moonset: 1:44 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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August 19th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° /  South IL  66° to 68° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  6:21 PM
Moonset: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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August 20th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° /  South IL  66° to 68° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  7:01 PM
Moonset: 3:52 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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August 21st 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° /  South IL  66° to 68° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° /  West KY 66° to 68° /  NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  7:41 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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August 22nd 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  84° to 88° /  South IL 84° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°  /  West KY  84° to 88° /  NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL  66° to 72° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° /  West KY 66° to 72° /  NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  8:15 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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August 23rd 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90°  /  SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  85° to 90° /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°  /  West KY  85° to 90° /  NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° /  SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL  66° to 72° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° /  West KY 66° to 72° /  NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.  Check radars.
Moonrise:  9:09 PM
Moonset: 7:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point.  Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.  Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

 

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Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.    

 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.  These graphics below are auto-generated.  My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make.  See that one for my personal forecast.

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Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.  These graphics below are auto-generated.  My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make.  See that one for my personal forecast.


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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.  This graphics below are auto-generated.  My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make.  See that one for my personal forecast.


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Today through August 22nd:  Widespread severe weather is currently not forecast.  I can’t rule out some intense thunderstorms this week.  If an MCS forms (complex of storms) then severe weather chances would increase.  I will keep an eye on this portion of the forecast.  A cold front arrives late in the week.  That could also increase the chance of a few intense thunderstorms.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

 

    1.   Increasing dew points/humidity levels as we move through the week.
    2.   Tracking tropical systems.
    3.   On and off thunderstorm chances.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages.  We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner.  Thus, we made the app.  See links at the bottom of the page.

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Weather Discussion

A fairly typical August weather pattern is underway.  Warm temperatures.  Humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

This pattern will last through the entire work week and into the weekend.

I tried to hit certain time-periods with higher rain chances (you can see that at the top of the page with the % numbers).

The entire week looks to bring at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with time-periods of increased coverage.  Coverage today and tomorrow will be higher over Kentucky/Tennessee vs Missouri/Illinois.

There will be quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere.  That means locally heavy downpours are likely to occur.  Some spots will pick up one to three inches of rain between now and Sunday.  Same as the last eight weeks.  Hit and miss big totals from slow moving thunderstorms.

PWAT values will range from 1.6 to 2.1 over the coming week.  Those are high numbers and represent quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere.

Watch as we move through the next few days how moisture content increases.  The 2″+ numbers represent a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  PWAT values.

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Tropical Storm Fred Moves Ashore Today

Fred is moving ashore along the Florida Panhandle.  It will miss us to the east.  There may be some increase in moisture levels locally, but the rain and storms will remain closely tied to the center of the tropical storm.

You can see the forecast track on this graphic.

Arrival time of tropical storm force winds.

Satellite shows the tropical storm.   Moving ashore.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C13_G16_s20212281206172_e20212281208556_c20212281209006.nc

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
  3. The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Longer range GFS

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Long range

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers August 16th through August  22nd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers August 23rd through August 29th 

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″

This outlook covers August 27th  through September 9th

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Precipitation outlook

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Temperature departures

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

August Temperature Outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

September Temperature Outlook

September precipitation outlook

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Summer Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Temperature Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook

 

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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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