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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
My forecast has been for widespread 1″-3″ of rain between Saturday and Tuesday night. Then, bands of 3″-6″ possible. Then, isolated spots 6″-10″+.
The most widespread heavy totals will be Missouri and Illinois. That does not mean Kentucky and Tennessee won’t see some big totals. Missouri and Illinois should experience the most widespread heavy totals.
Any storms that train over the same areas could quickly produce 1″-3″+ of rain per hour. Keep that in mind.
Sunday Video update https://wtalk.co/HQT4CZNR
August 14, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding. Greatest coverage might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Still, other areas should also see some showers and storms. Storms could produce heavy rain anywhere in the region that they form.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90% for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and 60%-70% for western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds with a few storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
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There is some uncertainty about placement of precipitation Sunday night into Tuesday. The front may move around a bit. The placement of the front is key to the heavy rain.
August 15, 2016
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Once again the greatest coverage might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and 50% for western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Small chance for strong winds in a few storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:45 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4. Low . We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 5:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:23 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a few storms producing gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 16, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:44 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 6:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:20 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 17, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and storms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:43 p.m.
UV index will be 7-11. Perhaps high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 7:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps a few remaining showers and storms.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 18, 2016
Thursday – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm forms then lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. If a storm forms then lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 19, 2016
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Some flash flooding is possible over the coming days
- Cold front this coming weekend and cooler after frontal passage.
Remember, I am on vacation from August 10th through August 20th. Everything will be updated daily. I might not be around as much to answer questions on the Facebook page.
Heavy rain has fallen across much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Totals of 1″-10″ have been reported. Needless to say flash flooding continues to be a concern.
My forecast remains unchanged. I am forecasting widespread 1″-3″ totals from Saturday through Tuesday midnight (that would actually be 12 am on Wednesday morning). There will be bands of 3″-6″ of rain. There will be pockets of 6″-10″+ totals. The most widespread heavy totals will be over Missouri and Illinois.
Storms have been slower to evolve over Kentucky and Tennessee. That was anticipated since the front has become stationary to the north and west of the Ohio River. We will continue to have on and off storm chances over the entire region into Tuesday evening/night. Additional counties might need to be added to the flash flood watch already in effect for a good chunk of the region.
The atmosphere will be laden with moisture over the coming days. If storms train over the same areas then you can expect pockets of flash flooding.
To see the flash flood watch click the links below
PWAT values will be high this weekend into next week. Numbers could top 2.5″ from time to time. That is an amazing amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Storms will have no problem producing heavy rain.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Historically set-ups like this have produced flash flooding in our region. Avoid flooded roadways. Use care if you are camping this weekend, as well.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days?
This is broad-brushed. Some spots will have a lot more and some less. Keep that in mind.
Click image for a larger view.
Temperatures over the coming days will vary greatly based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind, as well.
Monday morning low temperature map
Monday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night into Tuesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding will be a concern. Flooding in general will be a concern. Lightning will be another concern. Severe weather threat appears minimal. Perhaps a few storms with high winds or downburst winds.
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No major changes in this update
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I am concerned about the potential for flooding and flash flooding into Tuesday night. Closely monitor updated forecasts if you live in a flood prone area.
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Possibly. Monitor flash flood watches and warnings. Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Fast moving water can easily sweep away vehicles.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
