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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and nice. Pleasant weather for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August. Don’t you love it?
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – A few clouds. Nice weather for August, once again.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s .
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Again, nice weather for August. A bit warmer and a little more humid as winds turn around to the south.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Sunday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. A little more humid. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Sunday night – Just a few clouds. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Monday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Another great day on tap for the region.
2. Slightly warmer for the weekend.
3. Unsettled next week?
Can you believe we are now half-way through August? Meteorological Fall begins on September 1st. I honestly don’t know where this summer has gone. But, it is moving along. Guess we can’t slow it down.
Friday will deliver another beautiful day for the region. Perhaps a couple of degrees warmer. Humidity levels will remain in check.
The weekend will deliver warm conditions with a little bit of an increase in humidity levels. It will start to feel a bit more like August. Expect temperatures in the middle to upper 80’s on both days (Saturday and Sunday).
Rain chances will remain at or below 10%-20%. Model guidance is attempting to pop a storm or two on Sunday.
Our next cold front arrives on Monday night or Tuesday and another front later in the week. That could mean an increase in rain chances. See the extended discussion below for more information.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Warmer by the weekend
2. A stronger front middle/end of next week.
We have a few weather players to watch next week. One will be a weak cold front around Monday night or Tuesday that might dip into the region. There could be a few showers or storms associated with this front. If so they would move in from the north and northwest. This is not the system of most interest next week.
Here is the GFS model guidance for Monday night. You can see some precipitation over our region. The pink and purple colors represent rain and storms. You can see the area of high pressure over northern Wisconsin. It is attempting to nudge southward. That is shunting the cold front to shift southward towards our region. The front would be draped from the northeast down into Illinois and Iowa. Sagging southward.
Image is from wright-weather.com Click image for a larger view
Middle and end of next week?
Of more interest will be a stronger front around Wednesday through Friday. This system will likely produce a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. A deep area of low pressure should move across the northern United States into the Great Lakes or Canada. I would expect severe weather to be a concern over the Northern Plains with a system like this (into Canada, as well). Thankfully the better dynamics will stay well to our north.
If this systems cold front moves through the region then it could mean more northwest wind flow. That would likely mean lower humidity and temperatures. But, this is still many days away. I will keep an eye on it.
Let’s take a look at the GFS depiction of these frontal systems and associated precipitation. As you know, the GFS isn’t my favorite model to use for guidance. It does, however, have support from the EC. I do trust the EC guidance a bit more.
This is the GFS map for next Thursday night. You can see the low way way up in Canada and the trailing precipitation. See the pink and purple colors? That would be rain and thunderstorms. You can imagine in your mind a cold front trailing from Canada down into Wisconsin and then into Iowa and northwest Missouri. From there the front will drape into Oklahoma and Texas. If this front continues to track eastward then we should experience some precipitation, as well.
This model guidance is from wright-weather.com
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation is in the forecast for today through at least Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Thursday
Thursday: Not expecting storms
Friday: Not expecting storms
Saturday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
Sunday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
No concerns! Expecting some very nice weather over the coming days.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
