August 13th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through next Wednesday. I will monitor next Thursday and Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be severe Friday afternoon and night. Damaging wind is the primary concern. A low-end tornado risk. Nickel size hail, as well.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce excessive rain. Locally heavy downpours can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes. Same as recent weeks.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Today.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 13th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction becoming southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense with high wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely along an incoming cold front. Chances will be higher over our southern counties vs northern counties. Turning cooler and less humid. A cold front will push through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north. Scattered to numerous south.
Timing of the rain: Higher chances before midnight vs after
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense with high wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and plan accordingly.
Moonrise: 11:27 AM
Moonset: 10:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 14th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northeast at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered shower’s and thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Evening
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 11:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 15th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

August 16th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph becoming east/northeast
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 2:59 PM
Moonset: 121:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

August 17th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (coverage will be greater over the east/southeast portion of the region vs west/northwest)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 4:10 PM
Moonset: 121:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

August 18th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:15 PM
Moonset: 1:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

August 19th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. This graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through August 15th: A few storms could produce high winds and hail Friday afternoon and night. We are in a low level risk of severe weather during that time period.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Cold front arrives today.
2. Shower and locally heavy thunderstorm chances.
3. Widely scattered rain chances Saturday into next week.
4. Cooler and less humid Saturday into a portion of next week.
5. Tropical Storm Fred’s eventual track is being monitored.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

A few of the storms Friday/Friday evening could be intense with high wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail. There is a low-end severe weather risk.

Weather Discussion

Our much anticipated and long awaited cold front will push through the region today and tonight. This front brought thunderstorms to half the region last night. Rain totals exceeded two inches in some locations (even close to three for some). Others received no measurable rain.

Feast or famine weather. That is what I call it. Many locations could still use some rain.

Here are the radar estimated rain totals from yesterday evening through this morning.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

This morning’s IR satellite shows a large thunderstorm (MCS) cluster over Kansas and western Missouri. Those red colors are very cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms!

This is not radar, it is a satellite image. Satellite shows clouds. Cold clouds tops are cumulonimbus clouds.

The big question today will be additional thunderstorm development. There are numerous outflow boundaries left over from yesterday’s thunderstorms. These boundaries are typically the focus of new thunderstorm development.

It is a complex weather scenario today. At least, complex as to exactly who ends up with locally heavy thunderstorms vs those who stay dry. Overall, I have a 50% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms area-wide.

Some of the storms will produce torrential rain, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Pea size hail is also possible.

Rain totals will vary greatly. Some areas may remain dry and others will pick up one to three inches of rain. Avoid flooded roadways.

Friday Cold Front:

The cold front will deliver somewhat lower temperatures today, although it will still be hot and muggy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, for the most part. Heat index values will range from 98 to 106 degrees.

The real impact of the front will be felt tonight into early next week. Daily highs will drop into the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Lower dew points will make it feel nicer.

Dew points will begin to creep back upward by Monday and Tuesday. It will begin to feel a bit muggier with each passing day.

It does appear temperatures will remain in the 80s, for the most part, Monday through at least Wednesday.

We will also have at least a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday into the middle of next week. Many areas may simply remain dry each day, but some locations will pick up a shower/storm.

Tropical Storm Fred

I am also watching Tropical Storm Fred. Currently located in the Caribbean.

Models have shifted westward a bit over the last 24 hours. This will need to be monitored for additional shifts.

For now, the bulk of the rain should stay to our east. The system could increase our moisture levels a tad next week, but the bigger impacts are forecast east of our local area. This will need to continue to be monitored.

Any additional shifts westward could change our local forecast. The end result would simply be higher rain chances than I currently have. For now, I have them capped at 30%. Monitor updates.

The system is a tropical depression, at this time (Friday morning). A depression has lower winds than a tropical storm.

It will likely fluctuate between a tropical depression and a tropical storm over the next 24 to 48 hours. If it can survive the islands then it has a better chance of gaining a little strength. Islands can break these systems up/weaken them.

Arrival time of tropical storm force winds.

The path forecast. D means depression (sub-tropical storm strength). S means tropical storm strength. For now, this is not forecast to become a hurricane. Mainly a heavy rain maker.

Satellite shows the tropical storm. It is not all that impressive, at this time. Crossing islands usually weakens these type of systems. That has been the case with Fred. It lost a little strength over the last 24 hours.

If it does survive then it may strengthen some in the Florida Keys and then as it moves up the west coast of Florida. If you have travel plains into that area then monitor updates.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 OR_ABI-L1b-RadF-M6C13_G16_s20212251140206_e20212251149525_c20212251149587.nc

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.