August 13, 2025: Hot weekend ahead. Scattered thunderstorms today. Lower chances tomorrow.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

August 13th through August 19th

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning will be possible today and tonight. The chance of lightning will be lower tomorrow and even lower Friday into Saturday.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? UNLIKELY. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. You can never rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm warning during the summer months (for downburst winds).

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Slow-moving summer storms can produce isolated torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. Organized or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Isolated issues are possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through next Tuesday.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees by Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. I will monitor next Tuesday.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

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Here is the short-range concern meter. Just normal summer thunderstorms.

Keep in mind that typical August/summer thunderstorms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Tuesday. Extreme weather is not anticipated. It will be hot this weekend.

A few normal summer-time thunderstorms will be possible this week.

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.A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

Patchy fog this morning and tomorrow morning.
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the next seven days. Above-average temperatures (especially this weekend).
Warm mornings. Warm/hot afternoons. Humid throughout the period.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible today. Lower chances tomorrow through Tuesday.
Some of you will remain dry with little or no rainfall.
I am watching a cold front towards the middle/end of next week.

Good morning, everyone.

We are in a stagnant weather pattern. Rinse and repeat.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again today. Not everyone will see rain. Some locations will pick up a downpour. Others will remain dry. Same as the last two days.

A few of the storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. The threat of severe weather is very low. Summer storms can produce isolated high wind gusts.

A warming trend will begin on Friday and that will linger until at least next Tuesday.

Data indicates mid to upper 90s will be possible this weekend. Thankfully, dew points won’t be extreme. We won’t be returning to where we were a couple of weeks ago.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible this weekend. Locally slightly higher. During the big heat wave, we experienced 110 to 120 degree heat index values.

This is a fairly typical summer pattern. Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonal averages.

Here is my mugmometer. How muggy will it feel? It is going to be sticky outside. Muggy.

Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside.

As mentioned above, I am watching the weekend temperature forecast. The ridge of high pressure will be a bit stronger. That means low to mid-90s for highs vs lower 90s.

Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees are likely as we move towards Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Perhaps Monday, as well.

There may be another cold front towards the middle/end of next week. I am monitoring trends in the guidance.

That would help lower our temperatures. It would also increase rain chances. Fingers crossed for those who need rain.

You can see this weekend’s heat on the EC ensembles high temperature matrix. You can also see that cold front next week.

You can see the cooler temperatures on this graphic. I chose Paducah as a central point.

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No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next ten days.

Erin is forecast to become a hurricane and eventually curve out to sea.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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