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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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August 12, 2016
Friday
Sunset will be at 7:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:00 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Increasingly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Best coverage might end up over the northern half of the region (parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois).
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
August 13, 2016
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flash flooding. Best coverage on Saturday could also be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances everyone, but best coverage perhaps north vs south.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-90 degree range. Temperatures will vary depending on cloud cover and areas of rain.
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction along and north of the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds with a few storms
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a backup plan.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 1-6. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a backup plan
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August 14, 2016
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 1-5. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
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August 15, 2016
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms will produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:45 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4. Low . We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 5:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:23 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 16, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:44 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 6:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:20 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.More information on the UV index. Click here.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Some flash flooding is possible over the coming days
- Cooler end of month?
Remember, I am on vacation from August 10th through August 20th. Everything will be updated daily. I might not be around as much to answer questions on the Facebook page.
There remain a few questions on our upcoming rain event. It really isn’t a matter of whether it will rain or not. The question is how much rain will fall.
Perhaps the most important question is where in our region will the front stall. The placement of the front is going to where the largest rainfall totals are going to occur.
At this time, it appears the front will become stationary over southern Missouri into southern Illinois. The front could waver a bit during the day and night. Typically at night these systems shift southward a little bit. Then, during the day, they move back northward a bit. That could happen with this event.
If the front shifts around a bit then it is possible the rain coverage will be wider, but not quite as intense (in any given location).
Even with the front shifting around there will be the potential for very large rainfall totals. For over a week I have been telling you that 0.75″-2.00″ of rain will occur between now and Tuesday over most of the region. Then, pockets of 3″-6″ will also be possible. Some areas could pick up more than six inches of rain.
NOAA and the NWS are now saying the same.
This is obviously a significant rain event for our region (yet again). Flooding and flash flooding will be a concern. Flash flood watches cover much of the region. The watch is from Saturday into Sunday night. The watch will very likely have to be extended into at least Monday. More counties may be added, as well. Thus, monitor updated watches and warnings.
Here is where the flash flood watch is currently located. Keep in mind, this map may change. I will post a link so you can check the latest watch and warning map.
Click here to see if the map has been adjusted
PWAT values will be high this weekend into next week. Numbers could top 2.5″ from time to time. That is an amazing amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Storms will have no problem producing heavy rain.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Historically set-ups like this have produced flash flooding in our region. Avoid flooded roadways. Use care if you are camping this weekend, as well.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days?
This is broad-brushed. Some spots will have a lot more and some less. Keep that in mind.
These are some extreme numbers. Most of this falls on Saturday-Monday. I would encourage those in flood prone areas to closely monitor updated forecasts. This rain event means business.
Click image for a larger view.
This first map shows you the totals through Monday evening. WPC/NOAA/NWS is indicating over seven inches of rain might fall in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If storms train (repeatedly move over the same areas) then that is certainly possible.
This next map shows you the total rainfall from now through next Friday. Most of this falls Saturday into Tuesday. Yes, those are huge numbers being posted by NOAA and the NWS. Click image for a larger view.
Now, with that said, this is a forecast. Sometimes these events don’t go exactly as planned. It is weather, after all. The bulls-eye for the largest totals could very will move around a bit. That will need to be monitored.
Either way, some large rain totals are likely in our area between now and early next week. If you live near a flood prone area then monitor updated forecasts, as always.
Here is the GFS models rainfall totals through the next seven days. Click image for a larger view.
You can see it takes the heaviest band across Missouri and Illinois, as well. I would not pay too much attention to the actual numbers. Models will not handle totals very well. They rarely do.
I am showing you these model guidance maps so you get a feel for where the guidance is indicating the largest totals will occur.
Here is what the Canadian model guidance is showing. Notice where it places the heaviest band of rain.
Check out the NAM guidance. It is not in agreement with the other models. It is not showing as much rain. It is possible that the NAM just isn’t handling the setup very well. Or, it is also possible that it is seeing something the other models are not.
The NAM model pushes the heaviest totals further south and east. Keep that in mind.
What could go wrong with the forecast?
NAM and SREF guidance is further south and east than other models. It shows the heaviest rains over Kentucky and Tennessee. This needs to be monitored.
Another item of interest will be wild card thunderstorm rain totals Monday into Wednesday. Slow moving storms anywhere in the region could drop 2-4″ of rain per hour. This would cause rainfall totals to exceed expectations in some areas. Keep that in mind. It is a good possibility.
Here is what NAM guidance is showing through Monday night. See how it is further south and east than other models? Notice how it does NOT show extreme totals in Missouri and Illinois.
This model is likely wrong. It does not seem to be handling the setup with this particular system. Time will tell.
Temperatures over the coming days will vary greatly based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind, as well.
Saturday morning low temperature map
Saturday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Sunday morning low temperature map
Sunday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night and Saturday: Widespread thunderstorms possible. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Small risk for a severe thunderstorm. Flash flooding is a concern. The most coverage of precipitation might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Friday night and Saturday. Lesser chances along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Severe weather threat appears minimal.
Saturday night into Tuesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding will be a concern. Flooding in general will be a concern. Lightning will be another concern. Severe weather threat appears minimal.
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No major changes in this update
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I am concerned about the potential for flooding and flash flooding this coming weekend into next week. Closely monitor updated forecasts if you live in a flood prone area.
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Possibly. Monitor flash flood watches and warnings. Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Fast moving water can easily sweep away vehicles.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
