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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Just a small chance for an early evening showers. Otherwise, mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and nice. Pleasant weather for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August. Perhaps a little warmer and a little more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – A few clouds. Nice weather for August, once again.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s .
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Again, nice weather for August. A bit warmer and a little more humid as winds turn around to the south.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. A 10% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Sunday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. A little more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Sunday night – Just a few clouds. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Monday – Partly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A great forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Could not ask for better weather in August.
2. Slightly warmer on Friday and then a bit warmer on Saturday and Sunday
Well, we are about to add some below normal temperature days to the month. My August forecast was for more normal to below normal temperature days vs above normal temperature days. It will be a race this month. Either way, you will enjoy the upcoming days.
Current stats:
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has recorded five days at or below normal in the temperature department. They have recorded four days above normal in the temperature department.
Let’s take a look at those numbers. Yellow is above normal temperatures. Blue would be the normal to below normal temperatures. We are about to add several below normal temperature days to this graphic.
On this graphic you can see the MAX temperature and MIN temperature on the far left. Then the average. Right after that is the departure number. A zero represents an average temperature day. If you see a minus one then the temperature was one degree below normal for that date. Where it says WTR…that is precipitation totals for the date.
Here is the month to date chart for temperature anomalies. Blue indicates below normal temperatures (green is much below normal). We are in the push and shove area. Warmer than normal vs cooler than normal. This image is from weatherbell.com
Again, this is the month to date temperature anomaly (departures). Click the image for a larger view.
Thi
High pressure (and not the heat ridge kind) is dominating our weather. Beautiful weather! You just can’t beat this in August. It has been an odd summer. So, the beat goes on.
Expect this weather to continue through the week.
Let’s take a look at the 500 mp map. What is that showing up on the map again? Northwest flow! When northwest flow dominates we have cooler temperatures and less humidity. As long as our winds don’t turn around to the south at ground level.
Once the high pressure slides off to the east we will see southerly winds develop. Why? Because high pressure rotates clockwise. Thus, when it moves off to the east you can expect the winds to turn around to the south. Once the winds turn around to the south you can expect a bit warmer temperatures and a bit higher humidity.
Right now it appears precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday should be near zero percent. Once the winds turn around to the south we might have to add precipitation chances back into the forecast. But, even then it will be low probabilities.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Warmer by the weekend
Right now it appears we will see temperatures rise a little bit by the weekend. Perhaps back into the upper 80’s. Not sure we reach 90 over the weekend. We shall see.
You can see on this 500 mb map that the winds become more west to east. Typically that means we will warm up a bit.
The next big weather system might arrive around next Wednesday or Thursday. Some debate on when the cold front arrives. Expect showers and thunderstorms along the front. Whether that happens on Tuesday night, Wednesday, or Thursday…I will have to monitor the trends in the data.
There is some risk that the heat ridge will attempt to build back in from the west as we move into the third and fourth week of August. Low confidence on this happening. We tend to see this on the long range models over the past two months. But, then as we draw closer to the time frame it ends up not being as hot as the models suggested.
The GFS model has been absolutely horrible this summer. This is one of the main models that the NWS uses. I would go as far as saying it has been broken this summer. Many many times it predicted extreme heat. Only once or twice did that happen. It seems to have a tendency to build the heat ridge too far east and northeast. Let’s hope the model does better this winter.
The model was recently upgraded. That typically means improvements. Unfortunately, that has not been the case with the GFS. Frustrating. The EC model has been the better model when it comes to middle and long range predictions. That and pattern recognition. It has been an interesting summer.
Several sighs point towards a warmer than normal September and drier than normal September. We will see how that goes.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small chance for isolated showers this evening (Tuesday evening). Otherwise, not expecting precipitation through Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Tuesday.
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
Friday: Not expecting storms
Saturday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
Sunday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
No concerns! Expecting some very nice weather over the coming days.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
